prevention and suppression, and additional legislation is not required if sufficient funds are made available under laws now in effect. The recommendations generally were to implement existing legislation by adequate financing methods. OEP is giving increased effort to planning and preparedness activities that will increase readiness and minimize the effects of disaster. The possibility of a major earthquake is an ever-present danger for many, especially in the west coast States and in Alaska. As a result, the OEP conducted a 2-day seminar in June 1967 in San Francisco to consider what might be the effects, and how the State and Federal Government would deal with them, if the 1906 earthquake occurred today. Similar sessions are planned for other areas of the country on other disaster emergencies. TABLE 11.-MAJOR DISASTER DECLARATIONS AND ALLOCATIONS OF FUNDS FISCAL YEAR 1967 Some of OEP's functional areas cover broad supporting programs which encompass the total OEP structure and provide central services to the more specialized program offices. These areas are: (1) analysis and research; (2) resource evaluation; (3) tests and exercises; and (4) national and international activities. ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH Objectives 1. To maintain cognizance of, catalyze, and coordinate all Federal research and development projects which promote emergency planning and preparedness. 2. To develop and supervise an OEP research program which will meet OEP requirements not covered by research programs of other agencies. 3. To develop and maintain an information retrieval and distribution system pertinent to OEP's needs and responsibilities. 4. To develop and monitor research programs to improve OEP's resource evaluation capability. Status The main thrust of OEP's research activities is directed toward analyzing the current efforts in emergency preparedness research, identifying research requirements, and stimulating and coordinating research which would make a significant contribution to emergency planning. The National Academy of Sciences has organized an Advisory Committee on Emergency Planning to provide advice and guidance to OEP on scientific and technical matters. Jointly, OEP and the committee have undertaken studies in the areas indicated below. Studies completed during fiscal year 1967 include: 1. A study of the problem of stockpile discounting for specific vulnerability of production activities. 2. A compilation of research activities in Federal agencies relating to emergency planning. 3. A study of the Northeast power blackout to develop criteria applicable to other emergency situations. Studies to be continued during fiscal year 1968 include: 1. Long-range effects of technological changes on resources as they affect national security. 2. The impact of automation on national security on both a long- and short-term basis. 3. The role of the petrochemical industry in national security. 4. Conduct of the Second Symposium on Postattack Recovery. 5. Studies of electric power resources as related to emergency planning. Studies to be initiated during fiscal year 1968 include: 1. The need for and feasibility of a National Disaster Information Center covering: (a) organization of data and analysis of past disasters; (b) clearinghouse for expert advice on kinds of disaster situations; (c) study of preventive or ameliorative measures; and (d) exploration of special problems such as the transportation of hazardous materials. 2. New technological advances and analytical and managerial techniques to insure maximum use of resources in emergency situations. In addition to the above, OEP has established an Interdepartmental Emergency Preparedness Research Committee. This Committee was created to insure the coordination and exchange of information on all preparedness research for maximum mutual benefit. A research report abstracting system covering scientific developments of concern to OEP's mission was continued during the year with substantially increased intergovernmental demand for the service. Due to restricted funds, the contract research program for the coming year represents primarily a continuation of studies jointly initiated with the Office of Civil Defense in the postattack recovery field. This is a cooperative effort which involves over a million dollars of research and is designed to explore areas vital to both civil defense and emergency preparedness planning. In fiscal year 1968, several continuing contract projects concerned with improving the data input and operations of economic input/output analytical models will be financed jointly by the Department of Defense, the Office of Emergency Planning, and other interested Federal agencies. To obtain better balance in the research program during the coming year, OEP hopes to formulate and define study needs in relation to nonnuclear disasters. This will be an exploratory effort only for fiscal year 1968, but will provide a basis for establishing research priorities for fiscal year 1969 and the future. RESOURCE EVALUATION Since 1956, OEP and its predecessor agencies, with the active support of other Federal agencies, have developed and maintained a resource evaluation capability designed to meet certain common analytic needs of the various participating agencies in the area of contingency planning and preparedness. Objectives To maintain a feasible, factual, and operational analytical base for the support of emergency planning and related nonmilitary support functions in OEP and other Federal departments and agencies. This involves : 1. Preparation by OEP staff and Federal agencies of national resource evaluations and studies. 2. Maintenance of a comprehensive data base on United States and free world resources. 3. Improvement of analytical and computer systems including system formulation and programing. 4. Support of Federal agency emergency planning through specialized studies. 5. Maintenance of operational readiness at selected supplementary computer facilities to insure the timely availability of resource evaluations during emergencies. 6. Training potential and actual customers in the use and applications of analytical tools, studies, and estimates produced by the resource evaluation rogram. Status Resource evaluation is conducted with broad intra- and inter-agency support. Twenty-five Federal departments and agencies have assigned representatives to OEP in support of the resource evaluation program. In addition to staff, these agencies, along with others, provide appropriate data for the resource evaluation library. Contact is maintained with the academic community and private research organizations. In fiscal year 1967, computational support was extended to other elements of the Executive Office. In this regard, frequency management is being programed for use on OEP's equipment. Emphasis Until recently, primary attention in resource evaluation was focused on postnuclear attack problems. During the past 2 years, however, emphasis has been placed on development and application of analytic tools especially pertinent and useful in a limited war context. Examples of such tools are the national economic strength model and the SPIM system. The former is designed to predict the resources requirements implied by alternative combinations of national objectives, programs and policies, and associated assumptions. The latter is being designed to predict price behavior under given assumptions. Progress during fiscal year 1967 can be summarized in five functional areas: (1) data development; (2) analytic capabilities; (3) studies and estimates; (4) emergency readiness; and (5) equipment capability. Data Development Constant attention is given to maintaining and improving the resource evaluation data bank which is maintained on magnetic tape. Virtually all data supporting the resource evaluation program are drawn from existing Federal or private statistical programs. The present library contains more than 4 million resource records-a fourfold increase over fiscal year 1966. Resource coverage has recently been expanded with the introduction of records covering Defense Supply Agency installations, auxiliary broadcast stations, small manufacturing plants, wholesale and retail trade establishments, selected service industries, military communications, fallout shelter space, State and local health department clinics, medical manpower, and NASA facilities. Resource coverage was improved and updated in the following areas during fiscal year 1967: solid fuels production, minerals and primary metal production, special products capacity data (Industry Evaluation Board), National Guard personnel, military installations, large manufacturing plants, port facilities, population, Federal manpower, Federal office space, atomic energy facilities, airfields, navigational aids, packaged disaster hospitals, and broadcast stations. Considerable effort has been given to the support of economic models in general and the national economic strength model in particular. Procedures and factors to use in translating general statements of national objectives into the direct requirements implied by such objectives on each sector of the economy were further improved during the year. These direct requirements of "final demand" development procedures are required by the strength model. During fiscal year 1967, new procedures and data were developed to handle the investment and inventory change components of final demand. Significant improvements were also introduced into the methods of handling the personal consumption and Government components of final demand. In addition, work was completed on the development of 1958 interindustry transactions and coefficient tables based on an "activity" concept rather than the "establishment" concept used by the Office of Business Economics in its 1958 interindustry sales and purchases study. In the OBE concept, industry output is defined as the total shipments of establishments classified in the industry (these shipments include products primary to other industries, or secondary products). In the "activity" concept, industry output is defined as the total output of all products primary to the industry regardless of the industry classification of the establishments producing the products. Analytic Capabilities OEP continued to make progress in the development and improvement of limited and general war support analytic systems. In the general war context, the new READY system was brought to operational status. The system provides an improved and flexible vehicle for damage assessment and resource evaluation. Output can be obtained in any of many different available formats, including supply-requirements comparisons. Provisions have also been made 85-568-68-12 for sampling large files to speed the availability of summary results. Vulnerability analysis programs were expanded to provide supply-requirements comparisons for selected resources. Although some effort was spent in developing the PARM recovery model for general war use (the recovery model will replace the PARM prototype model described in last year's report), major effort during fiscal year 1967 was on limited war support. The national economic strength model was considerably modified and improved during fiscal year 1967. This model, which was developed to support limited war planning, is an interindustry model based on technology as described in the 1958 international table developed by the Office of Business Economics. In addition to the improvements described under date development, an improved method of computation was introduced and significant improvements were made in the format of computer output. Although the recovery and strength models can be used effectively to determine the direct and indirect requirements associated with alternative national policies under general or limited war conditions, neither system was designed to give explicit consideration to impacts on relative prices. A research project which uses a combination of interindustry and regression techniques has been initiated to address itself to the question of relative prices. This project is known as SPIM, an acronym for stable produced input model. Particular attention in SPIM is given to identifying the components of value added by industrial sector on the assumption that stresses in these components are reflected in price levels. Several studies have been undertaken on the level and composition of labor demand in key industrial sectors of the economy. The University of California was awarded a contract to investigate investment behavior-a project in support of both SPIM and the strength model. Other contracts are being made with the academic community for support of the SPIM research project. Studies and Estimates During fiscal year 1967, a major new RISK study-Hazard 65-was published and distributed. Although special analyses are still being requested by the various Federal agencies, computations are virtually complete. Hazard 65 provides an evaluation based on intelligence estimates of 1965 enemy capabilities and the spectrum of enemy objectives, U.S. responses, and attack conditions, of probable ranges of blast and fallout levels associated with individual key resources or classes of resources. The study, which covers selected Canadian as well as U.S. resources, was widely used by various civilian agencies as well as by various elements of the Department of Defense. A special internal study on the economic impacts associated with two proposed antiballistic missile deployment options was undertaken and completed during fiscal year 1967, using the strength model. Studies were also made, using strength, of several levels of Vietnam commitment to evaluate their associated impacts. Emergency Readiness Emphasis continued to be placed during fiscal year 1967 on: (1) improving techniques for acquiring and using postattack status information as well as attack data (weapon bursts); (2) effective use of communications to disseminate resource evaluations postattack; (3) insuring adequate postattack supplementary computer support; and (4) assisting Federal agencies in developing a capability for independent attack analysis and resource evaluation in the event computer results were not available. Illustrative of the latter is the training workshop held for specialists in military supply operations. Much is being done to pre-position resource data and materials to facilitate manual assessment in case such procedures are required. The grid analysis program (GAP) computations were completed during fiscal year 1967. Agency requirements for the precomputed casualty and housing losses associated with weapons detonated on the largest 122 standard metropolitan statistical areas were determined and printed. Equipment Capability A modern high-speed, large-scale computer (Univac 1108) was ordered in late fiscal year 1966 and delivered in May 1967. The new system, which replaces the large and bulky system delivered in 1957, is a time-sharing machine with remote terminal capabilities. Equipment has been ordered for several terminals, including one in Washington that will be available to OEP staff and will reduce substantially computational turnaround times. This activity provides central programing for all tests and exercises of nonmilitary defense and mobilization activities which involve Federal participation. Objectives To provide heads of Federal departments and agencies, and where appropriate, State and local heads of government, with: 1. A central program of tests and exercises to review and evaluate nonmilitary policies, plans, organizations, and procedures. 2. Appropriate assumptions, guidelines, and exercise situation materials necessary to conduct tests and exercises. 3. An effective system for evaluating the substantive matters tested or exercised. Status Executive Order 11051 requires that the Director, OEP, review and evaluate the emergency preparedness of Federal, State, and local governments to carry out their emergency functions; and that the Director shall from time to time furnish the President overall reports and recommendations covering these matters. As tools of the review and evaluation process, tests and exercises provide the Director, OEP, and heads of departments and agencies at all levels of government with a means whereby nonmilitary policies, plans, organizations, and procedures may be systematically and methodically investigated and tried, and a determination made as to their adequacy and effectiveness. Operational weaknesses also may be disclosed for which corrective measures can be taken. Tests and exercise activities carried on by OEP include the design, construction, and evaluation functions. Thus, a central program is provided for the Federal Government, and, where appropriate, for State and local governments. During the fiscal year, 16 additional tests of State plans for the emergency management of resources were conducted. This brings to 49 the total number of plans tested to date. The remaining three plans (Ohio, Utah, and New York) will be tested by the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 1968. During this reporting period, OEP has developed plans for a national civil preparedness exercise called Rex-1. This exercise will be conducted during the second and fourth quarters of fiscal year 1968. Planning for Rex-1 has been con |