gressional policy revisions in the initial provisions of the programs. Throughout the period population was growing at an annual rate of close to 1.6 percent and general prices at about 1.1 percent. The combined weight of population and price growth factors could account for a built-in upward effect of no more than 3 percent per year. As shown in the following sections, virtually every new program has increased by multiples far in excess of the amount which could conceivably be accounted for by these builtin or automatic growth influences. The projected 1968 costs of the programs enacted in the first six years of the period (through fiscal 1961) come to $7.5 billion, about 45 percent of the total of all the new program costs in 1968. The major activities contributing to the cost increases were associated with the Food for Freedom program and the space program. The Food for Freedom program, started in fiscal 1956 at an initial expenditure of about $121 million, is budg eted at $1.8 billion in fiscal 1968. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, encompassing the space programs as they exist today, was established in 1958. In that fiscal year space expenditures amounted to $89 million. In the early 1960's space programs were sharply accelerated, and a commitment was made to the manned lunar project. Spurred by these developments, space spending has risen sharply since 1961 and is estimated to total $5.3 billion in fiscal 1968. Thus while the initial year tab for each of these two programs was relatively small, their costs now comprise a significant portion of the total expenditures attributable to all new programs adopted in this period. Program Reductions In a 1961 report recommending the periodic reassessment by Congress of Federal grant-in-aid programs, the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations observed that allegations that Federal grant programs, once started, never end was "almost but not quite correct."4 The ACIR report included a table indicating that since the early 1950's only two such programs had been terminated. This review of a variety of Federal programs indicates that the Advisory Commission's comment can be applied with equal validity to other new activities, as well as to the grant-in-aid programs. Of all the programs examined in this study, only one study, only one - the accelerated public works program initiated in fiscal 1963has been terminated. However, any “savings" which might have been achieved through termination of that program have been more than offset by the institution of new programs providing increased aids for the same types of public facilities as were financed under the accelerated public works program. In those two or three additional cases where the annual expenditures under individual programs are shown to have decreased recently, closer examination reveals that the decreases were more apparent than real. The most outstanding example is the college housing loan program, for which expenditures increased steadily over the years, from $5 million in fiscal year 1955 to more than $300 million in 1966. However, for the fiscal years 1967 and 1968 the budget reflects a "minus" expenditure for each year for this program, reflecting an excess of 4. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, Periodic Congressional Reassessment of Federal Grantsin-Aid to State and Local Governments, Report A-8, Washington, 1961. III. Functional Breakdown of As noted earlier, the growth in the costs of new programs enacted since 1956, as reported here, reflects not only built-in influences, such as growth in population and prices, but also Congressional actions expanding the scope of the initial programs. Such policy changes were also a significant factor in the rise in costs of many programs established prior to 1956. This section presents material on the growth of "new" programs, by function, together with data on some of the major expansions resulting from statutory changes. In this analysis, 28 such "expanded" programs have been delineated, the vast majority of which are in the categories of health, labor, welfare and agriculture. For all 28 programs, expenditures totaled $2.2 billion in 1955 and grew to an estimated $9.4 billion for fiscal 1968. The details for individual programs are included in the Appendix tables and are discussed below. A summary, by function, appears in Table 2. Table 3 summarizes the growth trends of new programs covered in this analysis by standard functional budget groupings. Expenditures for new or expanded activities in the field of international affairs and finance (Table A-1) reflect the Food for Freedom program, already mentioned, as well as new directions in foreign assistance programs, and contri butions or subscriptions to recently established international organizations. Annual expenditures for the 9 new programs introduced in the period totaled $3.0 billion in 1966 and are estimated to rise further to $3.3 billion in fiscal 1968. In addition, Congressional program changes were a significant factor in raising the expenditure for two international programs, established earlier, from $84 million in 1955 to an estimated $172 million in fiscal 1968. As already noted, space activities, grouped here under the heading of space research and technology (Table A-1), are treated as a single program. Space spending rose from $89 million in fiscal 1958 to $5.9 billion in fiscal 1966, and will decline to an estimated $5.3 billion estimat this year. Detailed analysis of "new" programs under the agriculture and agricultural resources grouping (Table A-2) presents special difficulties. Changes and additions to agricultural programs are characterized not so much by establishment of wholly "new" programs or activities as by shifts in emphasis or direction, regrouping of existing programs, or changes in nomenclature. Expenditures for the 12 new programs enacted during the period of study totaled $60 million in 1966 and are estimated at $199 million in the current fiscal year. Increases aggregating $419 million (from 1955 to 1968) (a) In the administrative budget only. Covers only those programs which were already in effect in 1955; excludes statutory extensions associated with new programs established after 1955. Actual for 1966; proposed in 1968. Source: Appendix Tables A-1 through A-7. Table 3 Number of Major New Federal Programs Enacted Since 1956 by Function, and Associated Expenditures (a) In the administrative budget only. Actual for 1966; proposed in 1968. Source: Appendix Tables A-1 through A-7. were noted in 7 older programs reflecting important legislative changes. Programs included under the natural resources grouping (Table A-3) deal with land and water conservation, anti pollution, aids to commercial and sports fisheries, and a miscellany of similar programs. Expenditures for the 13 new activities in this area, while relatively small in relation to some other Federal functions, totaled $363 million in 1966 and are projected at $613 million in 1968. The number of new activities covered under commerce and tranportation,5 limited in earlier years, has increased markedly since fiscal 1965 (Table A-4). Several additional programs are proposed in the fiscal 1968 budget. Expenditures for new programs in this area jumped sharply between fiscal 1962 and 1965 (from $62 million to $468 million) reflecting outlays under the temporary public works acceleration program; these expenditures then decreased in fiscal 1966 and 1967 due to termination of the accelerated public works program. However, with the new proposals currently advanced, they are estimated to rise to $574 million in the current year. Most of the new activities involve aids to community and economic development. Most of the new housing and community develpment programs, shown in Table A-5, are of comparatively recent origin. The urban renewal program, begun in fiscal 1956 with an expenditure of $18 million, has grown steadily each year, to estimated expenditures of $412 million in the fiscal year just ended (1967) and $469 million in the current Health, Labor, and Welfare New health, labor, and welfare programs established between fiscal 1956 and 1966- 21 in number - will have required outlays of $8.3 billion by the end of fiscal 1968. The first-year cost of these 21 programs was $44 million; they are budgeted for almost $3.0 billion in the current fiscal year. Programs added in 1967 and proposed in 1968 will bring the total of new programs to 27 and the associated 1968 expenditures to $4.1 billion. (See Table A-6.) 5. One of the major new Federal programs in the field of transportation, financed through the highway trust fund as authorized in 1956, is excluded from this analysis of administrative budget programs. Estimated 1968 trust fund expenditures for highways (including the new beauty-safety provisions) exceed $4 billion. 6. New and expanded activities financed through trust funds, excluded from this analysis, have been of special significance in the field of health, labor, and welfare. Included were: extensions of the old age and survivors insurance program, established in 1935, and the introduction of disability insurance (1956) and health insurance (1965). Outlays for the latter two categories "new" programs in this period of study-are estimated at $6.6 billion in fiscal 1968. In total, trust fund outlays for health, labor, and welfare functions, $37.1 billion in 1968, were 5 times their 1955 level. |