Unmaking the West: "what-if" Scenarios that Rewrite World HistoryPhilip Eyrikson Tetlock, Richard Ned Lebow, Geoffrey Parker What if the Persians had won at Salamis? What if Christ had not been crucified? What if the Chinese had harnessed steam power before the West? Disparaged by some as a mere parlor game, counterfactual history is seen by others as an indispensable historical tool. Taking as their point of inquiry the debate over the inevitability of the rise of the West, the eminent scholars inUnmaking the Westargue that there is no escaping counterfactual history. Whenever we make claims of cause and effect, we commit ourselves to the assumption that if key links in the causal chain were broken, history would have unfolded otherwise. Likewise, without counterfactual history we all too easily slip into the habit of hindsight bias, forgetting, as soon as we learn what happened, how unpredictable the world looked beforehand, and closing our minds to all the ways the course might have changed. This collection is thus both an exploration of alternative scenarios to world history and an exercise in testing the strengths and weaknesses of counterfactual experiments. "If ever there was an argument for the usefulness of counterfactual history, this admirable, and admirably focused, collection has convincingly made it." —Robert Cowley, editor of the What If?TM series "With chapters ranging from politics to war to religion to economics and to science and technology, this is the most thematically wide-ranging collection on counterfactuality. An intelligent, cutting-edge study with important things to say." —Jonathan C. D. Clark, Department of History, University of Kansas "This volume is likely to become a standard reference in the literature on historical methodology, and could have a dramatic impact on the way future generations of historians approach disciplinary inquiry. . . . By allowing readers to share in the doubts and epiphanies that lead up to the authors' epistemological revelations, the volume allows readers to grasp the rich potential of approaching their own research from a counterfactual perspective." —Aaron Belkin, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa Barbara Philip E. Tetlockis Mitchell Professor, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, and author ofExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Richard Ned Lebowis James O. Freedman Presidential Professor of Government at Dartmouth College and author ofThe Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests and Orders, winner of the Alexander L. George Award for the best book in political psychology. Geoffrey Parkeris Andreas Dorpalen Professor of History at Ohio State University, a Fellow of the British Academy, and author ofThe Military Revolution: Military Innovation and the Rise of the West, 1500-1800, winner of two book prizes. |
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Contents
WHY WE CANT LIVE WITHOUT THEM HOW | 14 |
A Stillborn West? | 47 |
The Resilient West | 90 |
The Quest for a Counterfactual Jesus | 119 |
Religious Kitsch or Industrial Revolution | 145 |
Europes Peculiar Path | 168 |
NineteenthCentury British Imperialism Undone | 197 |
Without Coal? Colonies? Calculus? | 241 |
King Kong and Cold Fusion | 277 |
Hitler Wins in the East but Germany Still | 323 |
Conclusions | 361 |
Contributors | 393 |
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Common terms and phrases
actually American ancient argue army Asia Asian Athenian Athens Battle of Salamis believe British Cambridge University Press Carr Catholic century China Chinese Chinggis Christian city-states coal colonies contingent counterfactual history counterfactual thought experiments culture defeat democracy dominance E. H. Carr early modern East eighteenth elite emerged emperor empire England epistemic base essay Europe European fight fleet forces France German Goldstone Greece Greek growth happened Hellenic Herodotus hindsight bias historians Hitler human idea imagine imperial Industrial Revolution inevitable invasion James Jesus Joel Mokyr Joseph Needham King knowledge land later Liao mainland military minimal rewrite Mongol naval Nazi Needham outcome Oxford path Persian Persian Empire plausible political possible probably propositional knowledge Protestant question religion religious rise Roman scenario scholars scientific social society Song steam engine Tangut techniques terfactual Themistocles thought experiments tion victory West what-if William Xerxes Xi Xia Yangzi York
References to this book
Recent Themes in Historical Thinking: Historians in Conversation Donald A. Yerxa Limited preview - 2008 |