WEATHER MODIFICATION

obscure atmospheric problems. In the past 6 years, the NSF-supported effort in research specifically directed at weather modification problems has risen from $1.1 million in fiscal year 1959 to $2 million in fiscal year 1966 and an estimated requirement of $3 million in fiscal year 1967. In addition, and very importantly, the support of general basic research in the atmospheric sciences, much of which contributes to the fundamental understanding necessary for success in weather modification has risen from approximately $3 million in fiscal year 1959 to a total, including NCAR, of $20 million in fiscal year 1966.

Senator DOMINICK. I wonder if I might ask a question, Mr. Chairman?

Senator CANNON. Yes.

Senator DOMINICK. Could you tell the committee what the budget request for fiscal 1967 is, for weather modification, on behalf of NSF? Dr. HAWORTH. $3 million.

Senator DOMINICK. This has been included in the President's suggested budget?

Dr. HAWORTH. Yes, sir. And as I say, that does not include much. work that really is very closely related. It represents the line item labeled "Weather modification" in the budget. For example, none of NCAR's work is in the $3 million.

Senator CANNON. That $3 million is the figure you stated just earlier when you said that it ranged from $1.1 million in 1959 to $2 million in 1956, and $3 million in 1967?

Dr. HAWORTH. Yes, sir.

Senator CANNON. You may proceed.

Dr. HAWORTH. For example, much of NCAR's work actually bears very directly on weather modification. In the 7 years of sponsorship of weather modification research, NSF grantees have learned much which will be useful for weather modification. The University of Chicago Project Whitetop, for instance, has demonstrated the importance of the warm rain coalescence process in many supercooled convective cloud systems which formerly were thought to depend entirely on the Bergeron-Findeisen ice process. In addition, radar studies of seeded clouds have tentatively indicated about 5 to 10 percent rainfall increases in the nearby target areas with decreases of about the same size (rainshadow effect) downwind from the target. area, the latter phenomenon being, however, quite uncertain.

Chemical research at Lehigh University and the University of Arizona has revealed that the nucleating ability of silver iodide is a surface phenomenon not associated with the lattice structure of AgI as previously thought, but is strongly influenced by trace impurities. Strangely enough, ultrapure silver iodide has been found to be an extremely poor ice nucleator and to exhibit no photosensitivity in sunlight. At Colorado State University, an intensive investigation has revealed that there is a carryover and redistribution of silver iodide ice nuclei from one day to the next. This results in a persistent buildup in observed ice nuclei concentration on days when no seeding is performed.

Research carried on at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology has pointed out the significant role of freezing upon the

generation of electrical fields in clouds. The influence of electrical fields upon the coagulation of cloud particles has suggested the possibility of modifying clouds through artificial changes in the potentials which occur when the droplets freeze. These possibilities are also being investigated by scientists at the Arthur D. Little Co. and others. Another noteworthy development has been the discovery of an entirely new class of nucleating materials by a researcher at the University of Wisconsin. These materials are of the type which strongly absorb heat when they go into solution in water. One such substance is common urea, such as used in fertilizer. When ground into particles of between 1 micron and 20 microns in size, urea has been shown to be effective in producing ice crystals from micron-sized cloud droplets at temperatures as high as 6° C. above freezing, which is roughly 10° F. above freezing.

Research at the State University of New York, University of Washington, and the University of Chicago has brought out the fact that supercooled water droplets will freeze at a warmer temperature when the nucleant is introduced externally to the droplet surface than when the nucleant is embedded in the droplet initially during the cooling process. The difference in freezing temperature may be as high as 15 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit, and indicates the desirability of introducing the nucleant by rocket or mortar shell high up in the cloud to take advantage of this effect.

As the Foundation's programs grew it became obvious that a central research facility in the atmospheric sciences with the capability of staging meaningful experiments and large-scale laboratory efforts was necessary to stimulate the field of atmospheric sciences and to serve as a central focus for the efforts of the university community. This led the Foundation, with the advice and encouragement of the National Academy of Sciences, to support the request of the University Committee (now Corporation) for Atmospheric Research that a National Center for Atmospheric Research be formed. Dr. Roberts will speak to you later about its programs. At this point I want to say only that the Foundation is pleased with its performance and believes that Dr. Roberts can be proud at having built NCAR so quickly and so well.

The Foundation's program in weather modification does not stand alone. Their mission requirements have caused many other Federal agencies to mount strong programs and, to properly round out the picture, I would like to mention very briefly some of their present activities.

The Department of Commerce, the Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) carries on a research program in weather modification. The work includes—

(a) Experiments on tropical clouds and hurricanes conducted with the Navy on Project Stormfury.

(b) Development of theoretical models of the atmosphere capable of reproducing the natural processes which produce the

weather.

Within the Department of Defense all three services have strong interests. The program of the Air Force is directed mainly toward a study of the life cycle of clouds and their electrical properties utilizing ground radar and highly instrumented, cloud-physics aircraft. The

Air Force also has undertaken a comprehensive field research program to understand the natural life cycle and variability of warm fog. The Army program of research in weather modification has emphasized three areas: the basic study of cloud physics mechanisms, the basic understanding of precipitation phenomena, and the basic concepts of cloud modification. The efforts by the Navy in weather modification, including both laboratory and field work, are centered around studies of warm fog, trade winds, cumulus clouds, the hurricanes. The latter involves joint work with the Weather Bureau on Project Stormfury.

The Department of the Interior's interest in weather modification is concerned with the atmospheric water resources of the Nation and the possibility of stimulating additional precipitation and runoff to the river basins which feed the Bureau of Reclamation reservoirs. The Bureau program is founded in part on the continuation of a number of programs initially developed under Foundation sponsorship. In the Department of Agriculture the primary effort is the continuation of the Forest Service's Project Skyfire. The project has two long-range objectives:

(a) To obtain a better understanding of the occurrence and characteristics of lightning storms and lightning fires in the northern Rocky Mountain region; and

(b) To investigate the possibility of preventing or reducing the number of fires caused by lightning by applying techniques of weather modification.

The Foundation has helped in the support of this program for several years.

The Foundation's responsibility has been not only to support weather modification research, but to present an overview of the state of knowledge and effort in the field. Its annual reports to the President and the Congress-now seven in number-have given this overview by describing the total national efforts in the field. Additionally, the third annual report presented for the first time the highlights of weather modification activities around the world. The seventh one has some of that in it, too. The Foundation promoted the exchange of information about plans and programs of the various Federal agencies and effectively provided for cooperation and coordination at the working level through various mechanisms, including the Annual Interagency Conference on Weather Modification, where much of the current Federal interest in weather modification has been kindled.

Your perusal of the reports of the National Academy of Sciences Panel on Weather and Climate Modification and of the Foundation's Special Commission, I am sure indicated to you that the scientific community generally feels that the field of weather modification presents a great opportunity for progress. Research supported by NSF and the other Government agencies has produced increased knowledge sufficient to convince leading scientists that there are indeed great opportunities here. In the words of the Academy Panel:

An earlier era of speculation has gradually been superseded by the present period, in which rational and systematic exploration of modification potentialities has become possible.

The Foundation is proud that its programs of the past few years have also served to reduce the manpower limitations that heretofore existed, although even now the number of scientists available is not as

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large as we would like. There are, however, very strong limitations on basic knowledge even in those fields where we know enough to be optimistic concerning our chances for success in the development of engineering methods and there are, of course, technology limit at ons which developments of the postwar era in instrumentation, flat capabilities, and data processing have done a great deal to minimize. The large computers, of course, are very important in this respect Three of the major developments are the weather satellites, the ne of radar for observing clouds, and the use of computers to simulv'e atmospheric phenomena. The advent of large computers, partia larly, has immeasurably brightened the prospects for rapid progres in climatic research. The fundamental way in which these maci, re have changed our approach to atmospheric studies and the prosp* for progress has been emphasized by both the Academy Panel and the Special Commission.

Additionally they point out that certain areas of weather and climate modification require, for their adequate exploitation, an immediate increase in applied research and in the development of teenology. The problems of the clearing of fog, and the enhancenet of precipitation are two of these. The Foundation is in hearty agree ment. It is none too soon for us to increase our efforts in applying ↔ knowledge to the further development of these techniques,

At the same time, both groups have made it abundantly clear · v our fundamental knowledge and understanding are still woef. s incomplete, and that there are hazards, particularly in the biolog field, whose magnitude is but dimly seen. Both groups have 3× pointed out the potentially serious problems associated with adve ent modification of weather and climate as an undesired and lar. unforeseen consequence of man's habitation of this earth. In a t many areas, the exact nature, magnitude and time scale of these time lems is distressingly obscure, but in those few places where the ve been lifted, both the National Academy and the Special Commess have found cause for serious concern." With this concern, and w their expressed recommendation of the need for a stepped up progra of basic and applied research in weather and climate mod hiton a on the natural causes of climate change, the Foundation is hearty agreement.

Whatever the course of events, the Foundation feels that its research activities must receive increased emphasis. As the evra tee is well aware, the NSF's authority is limited as a conses,tef its creation as a scientific research and education oriented agel, "T would be quite inappropriate for the Foundation to carry its weat modification activities into extensive development of technology the conduct of large field operations for the express purpose of ing prose.pitation. Here, I am distinguishing between in opers" sgned to increase precipitation in order to have more water a pared to experiments to see what can be done. L'kewise, Dem through heensing, or of her me ins, of weather modification reseat commereval operations is not an appropriate role for the For and we do not feel that the Foundation should go further in de ing such activities. To repeat, however, the Foundation of the open on that its research and education efforts both d.res · d.rwerly supporting weither mod fication should a rease.

Senator CANNON. Are you thereby increasing your funding level to permit you to do more?

Dr. HAWORTH. Yes. That is a requirement to do more, yes.

Senator CANNON. What level are you talking about? What do you

envision?

Dr. HAWORTH. I think we should continue to grow at something like the rate we have been growing during the last 2 or 3 years.

Senator CANNON. That doesn't quite support your statement if you say we continue to grow at about the same level that we have. Did you say "go" or "grow"?

Dr. HAWORTH. Grow.

Senator CANNON. What would you then envision, for example, in the 1968 budget?

Dr. HAWORTH. I don't think I figured that out exactly. It should go up by fiscal year 1970, say, to perhaps more than double what we are hoping for in 1967.

Senator CANNON. All right.

Dr. HAWORTH. Of course, it has to be in competition with all the other needs for funds.

Senator CANNON. I understand. I was just trying to get into proper focus the type of growth you were talking about.

Dr. HAWORTH. This is for the underlying research.

The necessity for indirect or related research on weather modification deserves some comment. There are many scientists including members of the Foundation staff and the National Science Board who have become increasingly convinced that the changing character of man's interaction with his environment will constitute the central scientific problem for the next generation or two.

The Foundation is vitally concerned with developing and shaping the role it must have in this general problem area in order properly to serve the coming needs of society. Study of the problems of human interaction with the environment requires a broad range of scientific skills-physical sciences (oceanography, meteorology, geophysics, geology, geochemistry), social sciences (anthropology, social psychology), engineering (transportation, sanitary engineering, systems engineering), biological sciences (ecology, systematic biology), and so forth, not all of which are directly related to weather modification. The magnitude of environmental problems is growing at an amazing rate, as is the number of thoughtful citizens, both scientists and others, who are becoming alarmed at the prospects before us. It is my feeling that the National Science Foundation has sufficient breadth and contact with the broad academic scientific community to bring all fields of science to bear upon developing an improved understanding of environmental problems, including weather modification. The Foundation also has great resources in the fields of science education and science information which it can bring to bear on the problem.

So great is my own concern with developing the Foundation role. and stance in this problem area that I have recently established an Environmental Sciences Division within the Foundation, which is of equal organizational rank with the older research divisions, such as the Mathematical and Physicial Sciences Division, the Biological and Medical Sciences Division, the Engineering Division, and the Social Sciences Division.