The decline in shipbuilding during the first three years of the war nearly proved to be a calamity for the British nation. As stated in a preceding section, losses by submarine activity and otherwise greatly exceeded this output. In 1917 and 1918 great efforts to increase production have been made. Lloyd's Returns give a total of 416 steam vessels under construction December 31, 1918, with a total gross tonnage of 1,977,202. Of this number 414 are of steel fabrication. (Only eight sailing vessels are reported, with an insignificant tonnage.) Three hundred and twenty-six of these vessels are of 5,000 gross tons or over. During December, 1918, 30 vessels, with a gross tonnage of 118,276, have been completed. These data suggest that the output during 1919 should be above the pre-war level. (The data of ferro-concrete vessels under construction are not given in Lloyd's Returns. These vessels are largely for Admiralty account. There are, however, 27 shipyards laid down, or in process of being laid, for the construction of concrete vessels.)

However, even with this increased output it will be some time before Great Britain can bring her mercantile marine up to its pre-war carrying power. Other factors besides the actual loss of tonnage have contributed to the deterioration of the fleet. Owing to the neglect of repair work during the war many ships will have to be temporarily removed from service until the necessary overhauling can be done. Further, many ships which otherwise would never have been used for ocean travel were pressed into service during the war and have consequently suffered unusual depreciation. The amount of repair work is therefore much greater than under ordinary conditions, and the general efficiency of British shipping has been seriously reduced through the retention on the register of old tonnage which would ordinarily have been sold and replaced with new. In view of all these factors, the Committee on Shipping and Shipbuilding maintain that it is essential for the yards of the United Kingdom to complete annually not less than 3,200,000 gross tons of merchant shipping for some years, if not indefinitely.

The capacity and output of American yards at present considerably exceeds that of the British. Lloyd's Returns, referred to above, give the number of ships under construction in American yards December 31, 1918, at 997, with a gross tonnage of 3,645,919.

According to recent reports, the British Government is planning to sell the national shipyards recently built to private interests. There seems to be little likelihood of Government ownership or operation of either the shipyards or the fleet. Government control of the disposition of new ships and the transfer of old to other countries, however, is being strongly urged in some quarters.

119025-19- -8

VII. THE DIRECTION OF TRADE.

INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY.

In the foregoing pages frequent reference has been made to the direction of the import and export trade of the United Kingdom, and in the case of a considerable number of commodities the various countries involved have been shown by percentages in some detail. In the present chapter this subject will be more fully discussed, particularly from the standpoint of the more important countries with which the United Kingdom has commercial relations.

The direction of trade the world over has necessarily been seriously affected by war conditions. The foreign commerce of the Central Powers has been practically destroyed, and this has necessitated the establishment of new lines of trade (as far as possible) on the part of all the countries formerly trading with the enemy nations. The blockade of Germany and Austria-Hungary and, to a lesser degree, the bordering neutrals, in combination with all the other disturbing conditions brought about by a state of war, has paralyzed or very seriously disturbed the commerce of European countries, both belligerent and neutral, and has changed to a considerable degree the character, direction, and volume of the trade of all other important countries. The trade of the United Kingdom, however, does not show quite such striking developments and radical changes in direction as that of some of the other countries seriously involved in the war and less favorably situated than the United Kingdom. Great Britain is the great trader of the world, and with her large merchant marine and position of naval superiority she has been enabled to keep open the essential arteries of commerce for the most part. The volume of the United Kingdom's commerce with all the important countries of the world was large before the war, and this is still the case, with a very few exceptions. The trade with the Central Powers has, of course, been temporarily destroyed. The same is true of the trade with Belgium; and the commerce with Russia, particularly on the import side, has been seriously cut down. These changes are seen to be of serious consequence when it is pointed out that in 1913 the imports from Germany to the United Kingdom totaled over 80,000,000 pounds sterling, an amount second only to the total received from the United States, £140,000,000. The loss of this trade has undoubtedly been of serious consequence to the commercial classes in the United Kingdom, and in the case of a few items of basic importance it has been very difficult for Great Britain to replace commodities formerly received from Germany. Another striking change in the course of trade has been the decline in imports from France and the very sharp increase in exports to this country to over 300 per cent, in 1917, of the 1913 level. As has been pointed out many times in preceding sections, the growth the United States to the United Kingdom has been phenomenal. during the war of the imports of foodstuffs, mineral oils, etc., from This trade in 1917 had increased by 170 per cent of the 1913 total.

L

1

As would be expected from a consideration of the discussion and data in the preceding chapters of this study, the total import trade of the United Kingdom during the war has been considerably increased in quantity and very sharply increased in value, while the export trade has scarcely been maintained in value, and, as far as volume is concerned, has suffered a considerable decline. The United Kingdom's large reexport trade has suffered especially severely, declining in the case of many commodities to negligible proportions.

A consideration of the general trade situation as between British colonies and protectorates and so-called foreign countries shows some interesting tendencies. Imports from the colonies and protectorates amounted in 1913 to 210,000,000 pounds sterling. În 1917 this figure had risen to 360,000,000 pounds sterling, an increase of 70 per cent. The total imports from foreign countries in 1913 were about 555 millions, and in 1917 approximately 700 millions, an increase of only 26 per cent. Exports to the colonies in 1913 were 220 million pounds sterling, and in 1917 were 180 millions, a decrease of nearly 20 per cent. Exports to foreign countries in 1913 amounted to 425 million pounds sterling, and in 1917 to 415 millions, a decline of about 2 per cent. These data show the rather interesting fact that Great Britain during the war has been obliged to depend to an increasing extent upon her colonies for foods and essential raw materials and has been forced to sacrifice her export trade with the colonies to a greater extent proportionately than the export trade with foreign countries.1

The following table presents the direction of the import and export trade of the United Kingdom by leading countries for the years 1912-1918. All countries are included which show a total of around 10,000,000 pounds sterling or more in any one of the years covered, or in either side of the trade:

It is hard to say just what has been the cause of this change. The exports to British colonies have been held up in a measure because of the necessity of supplying the European Allies, particularly France, with coal and other essentials. The scarcity of tonnage and the increased industrial activity of the colonies are other factors entering into this situation. It should be noted that in 1915 Egypt was transferred from the foreign country to the colony classification in the British official trade statistics. In these computations the trade with Egypt is included throughout in the colonial group. It should also be remembered that the figures given above are in values rather than quantities, although this does not disturb the accuracy of the proportions stated.

2

Annual (and Monthly) Statements of Trade of the United Kingdom.