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Numerous associated data are acquired and reported to reflect the state of the farm economy. Among these are numbers and sizes of farms, employment and wage rates, farm and commercial stocks, prices received and paid, weather damage, and seed supplies.

Forecasts and estimates are based primarily upon information collected through mail questionnaires distributed throughout the Nation and supported by enumerative surveys and objective yield measurements. For the most part the data are tabulated in State offices and preliminary analyses are forwarded to the Crop Reporting Board in Washington where State information is assembled to arrive at national estimates. After intensive review and analysis, the official estimates are derived with each State estimate bearing a consistent relationship to a national estimate before being released. Every estimate or forecast is accompanied by historic data such as comparable data for the preceding year and 5-year averages to help users assess the significance of apparent changes.

(The following was submitted for the record :)

CROP AND LIVESTOCK ESTIMATES

Current activities and trends. This program includes the collection, analysis, and interpretation of basic statistical and economic crop and livestock data and preparation of official National and State forecasts, estimates and reports relating to food and agriculture. These reports and estimates cover the most important aspects of production and marketing-number of farms and acreage in farm lands; acreages, yields, production, stocks, numbers and production of livestock, poultry and their products; value and utilization of crops, livestock and livestock products; prices received by farmers for products sold and prices paid for commodities and services bought for living and production; farm employment and wage rates; quantities of various foodstuffs in cold storage; and other aspects of the agricultural economy. In addition, the program includes computing the parity index and determining and publishing parity prices for agricultural commodities. The estimates and forecasts are released through the medium of about 700 reports each year.

Thousands of farmers, processors, merchants, and others serve as volunteer reporters, and their reports are supplemented by field observations, objective yield measurements, and other data to provide the resulting reports issued for public information.

Long-range program for developing the Agricultural Estimating Service.-The principal goals of this program are to (a) increase the accuracy and dependability of National and State data, (b) improve agricultural price statistics, (c) expedite the release and distribution of reports, and (d) provide additional data and services needed for certain commercially important products. Selected examples of recent progress

1. Quarterly pig crop reports.-Funds were appropriated for fiscal year 1963 to initiate quarterly pig crop reports in 10 States. This program expands and improves the reports previously developed on an experimental basis and provides for a regular system of independent quarterly surveys and reports. The quarterly surveys are being conducted in the following States: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

The quarterly program affords individual States the opportunity to obtain collateral data not available through regular surveys but which are needed within the State and are financed with State funds.

Data covering such related items as feeder pig purchases, sources, costs and weights are obtained in Illinois and Wisconsin. Ages of hogs marketed as well as deaths of hogs and pigs by months are surveyed in Ohio and Illinois. Expected hog marketings by classes during the succeeding quarters were asked by Kansas. The December 1961 and June 1962 enumerative schedules were used to test the procedure for reporting hog inventories by weight groups rather than ages. Results, from the viewpoint of ease of reporting and usefulness as an indicator, suggest weight grouping as a promising alternative.

2. Fruit estimates.-A continued study of objective counts and measurements will be made in an effort to improve the accuracy of production forecasts of selected fruits. Particular emphasis will be placed on analyzing the sample, methods of counting and measuring, and droppage and growth curves of Florida citrus. As the June general purpose enumerative survey is expanded to include California, an effort will be made to obtain data which will serve as a basic for estimating the size of sample needed to estimate the acreage of various fruit, nut, and vegetable crops in California by the enumerative approach. With respect to forecasting services for grapes and lemons in California, a limited service for grapes was conducted in fiscal year 1962 in cooperation with the grape industry. This was done in response to the congressional report on the 1962 Appropriation Act which requested that the agency consider providing estimates on both grapes and lemons, if possible, under funds which may become available. Lack of funds, however, did not permit the forecasting of the lemon crop. With respect to fiscal year 1963, in response to the urgency indicated for estimates on both these commodities, appropriate action has been taken to provide an expanded service. The cost of this work for which plans are now well underway is being funded in part by the State of California, with the Statistical Reporting Service absorbing the remainder of the shared cost.

3. Coordination with expanded enumerative survey program.-The June 1 enumerative survey covering numbers of farms, land use, crop acreages, and livestock numbers included, on an operational basis, 11 Southern States and 9 North Central States in 1962. In late June 1962 expanded survey totals were available for these States for use in the preparation of crop acreage estimates. The enumerative survey results were reviewed along with indications from the regular surveys, acreage allotments and other check data. The Crop Reporting Board estimates for major crops varied from the individual State enumerative survey expansions but generally fell within the range of the probable error of the survey. Further experience with the enumerative survey data will be necessary before the Crop Reporting Board can rely fully on the indications.

4. Cattle on feed.-Alabama and Georgia were added to the quarterly program October 1, 1961, bringing the total States in this program to 28 (North Central States, Western States, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, and Georgia). Colorado was added to the monthly cattle-on-feed program which now covers 3 States (Arizona, California, and Colorado); and the annual January 1 cattle-on-feed survey was expanded to include New York and Maryland. 5. Inauguration of cane and bushberry estimates.-Beginning with the 1962 crop season a program of forecasts was inaugurated covering black raspberries, red raspberries, blackberries, loganberries, boysenberries, and youngberries in Oregon, and black raspberries, red raspberries, blackberries, and currants in Washington. The estimating program consists of an April estimate of acreage for harvest, one forecast of production for each berry crop made prior to harvest and an end-of-season estimate of production, utilization, and value. The forecast surveys are based on a probability sample of growers, stratified by size groups.

6. Reinstatement of horticultural specialties report. The annual reports for selected States on production and sales for cut flowers and for nursery products were reinstated after the lapse of a year. This program of estimates which was begun in 1956-57 was not conducted during 1960-61 when the resources and personnel allocated to this project were used in a cooperative project with the Bureau of the Census in obtaining as complete a census as possible for all horticultural specialties in all States for the 1959 calendar year. The 1961-62 survey was conducted in six States (California, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Florida, and New York). Analysis and summarization of the data were handled by automatic data processing which greatly facilitated completion of the survey.

7. Durum wheat stocks. For several years the Department had been requested to include separate estimates for Durum wheat in the quarterly grain stocks report. Effective with the January 1, 1962, Grain Stocks Report, estimates of farm and off-farm stocks data were modified to provide separate stocks estimates for Durum. The initiation of these estimates was favorably received by the industry.

8. Cotton acreage-March intentions.-Estimates of cotton acreage intended to be planted by farmers were instituted with the 1962 March Intentions Report. Cotton was included in the intentions report as a result of the removal of statutory limitations on the publishing of cotton acreage intentions, and the

establishment of the enumerative survey program on a full operating basis in Southern States.

9. Report on forest products pricing.—The Appropriation Act for 1962 called for a report by the Statistical Reporting Service on the feasibility and practicability of establishing a price reporting service for forest products. Accordingly, a report was prepared in cooperation with the Forest Service and submitted to the Congress in February 1962. This report was published by the Senate Committee in a supplement to the hearings before the Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Senate, 87th Congress, 2d session, on H.R. 12648. Included in the report was a résumé of timber price information currently available and an evaluation of it, based on interviews with forest products industry personnel and representatives of public agencies with responsibilities to forest landowners. A further evaluation was obtained from a questionnaire mailed to approximately 9,200 recipients of timber price reports in 17 States. The general consensus of those interviewed and those returning the questionnaire was that timber price reports currently published serve a useful purpose, provide information not otherwise readily available, and represent with reasonable accuracy prices actually paid for timber products. In addition, the report discussed the need for a timber price reporting service and its feasibility, and presented in general terms a Federal program of timber price reporting, together with cost estimates.

10. Improving milk production statistics.—With a rapidly increasing percentage of total milk being produced in large commercial herds, new procedures are needed to furnish more accurate indications of monthly production per cow. Plans are being developed with individual field offices to meet this need with new procedures such as weighting of monthly milk-per-cow indications by size groups and in some States, initiating monthly surveys covering commercial herds. Alternatives in publication policy are being studied to provide a more accurate indication of monthly milk per cow than the first-of-month rate reported by crop reports which is now being published by States.

11. Minnesota-Wisconsin manufacturing milk price.—In August 1961, a program was started in Minnesota and Wisconsin to expedite milk price collection and reporting procedures so that monthly milk price data for these States could be published a month earlier than for other States. Earlier release of this information was needed in particular by the Dairy Division Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service, for use in establishing prices for specified classes of milk in selected Federal order milk marketing areas.

Initially, the two-State average price was used as the basic formula price for all classes of milk in the Chicago area. Its use was rapidly expanded to other marketing areas and by the end of fiscal year 1962 it was being used in 38 Federal order markets. Effective August 1, 1962, it was adopted in 30 additional markets and 1 more was added on September 1. Definite plans are being made to add 3 more, which will mean that 72 of the 82 Federal order milk marketing areas will be using the 2-State average manufacturing milk price as the basic formula price.

12. Prices received for turkey eggs for hatching.—A survey on prices received for turkey hatching eggs covered 19 States that accounted for about 90 percent of all turkeys tested in both 1952 and 1960. Statisticians from SRS field offices personally contacted practically all turkey hatcheries in all but three of the important States. In these three States they visited all large hatcheries and a random sample of smaller hatcheries, taking into consideration size and geographic location of the plants. The survey also included large flockowners who shipped turkey eggs to hatcheries in other States and large dealers who purchased turkey eggs for shipment in a few States where this practice was important.

Data obtained were fairly comprehensive and represented a fair cross section of turkey hatching egg sales in the United States. State data were combined into U.S. averages for each year on the basis of available information on sales of such eggs. National annual average prices for each year, 1951-61, and the mid-December 1961 price were published in the December 1961 issue of Agricultural Prices, together with the current parity price, and the current price as a percent of parity.

13. Issuance of prices paid bulletin.-A bulletin was issued which brought together for the first time under one cover the complete series of U.S. averages of prices paid by farmers for commodities purchased, as used in the construction of the Parity Index from 1910 through 1960. The National price series

used in the construction of prices paid indexes have not appeared in their entirety in one volume previously, and this publication therefore fills a need expressed by many people interested in the actual retail price series that contribute to month-to-month changes in the Parity Index.

14. Telephone and electricity survey.-A few changes were made in the processing phase of the 1962 telephone and electricity survey. The complete code for each reporter was standardized and placed on address punchcards along with his name and address. The data were printed on two sticker lists and used for mailing first and second requests. The coding of the questions and layout for punching the survey data on input cards was virtually unchanged from 1961. The program needed only to be revised to handle the new code arrangement given to each report and input card. In 1961 the data were summarized in the computer program by size of farms. The number of farms for each size group, as determined on the basis of 1960 census distributions, was used as weights in computing weighted survey averages for electricity. The individual codes given each reporter in 1962 will make possible a comparison of returns on electric rates for identical farmers, within each farm size group next year.

15. Number of farm estimates revised.-Statistical Bulletin No. 316, June 1962, presented revised estimates of number of farms for the years 1951-59 as well as the entire series by States beginning in 1910. Definitions used, which were established in agreement with other agencies place estimates for 1954 and following years on the definition used in the 1959 Census of Agriculture. This work had been delayed for results of Bureau of Census studies of 1959 census coverage of farms and farmland included in soil bank contracts. Estimates of land in farms 1950-59 by States were also published in Statistical Bulletin 316. A publication issued in February 1962 presented estimates of number of farms and land in farms by States through 1961.

16. Preparation and publication of monthly prices received by farmers for fresh vegetables. For several years the Crop Reporting Board has published monthly prices for the United States only for the various vegetable crops. In recent years there has been a demand for a published series of monthly prices by seasonal groups and by States. Statistical Bulletin No. 318, published in June 1962, included monthly prices for 1954 through 1961 by crops, by States, and for seasonal groups and the United States. Such price series will be very helpful to those who are interested in the price statistics of the various vegetable crops, and will give a good basis for making studies, to better understand the price and marketing statistics of such vegetables. In the future, monthly vegetable prices, by States, will be published as a supplement to the regular price report.

17. Egg products report.-Arrangements were made with the Poultry Division, AMS, to receive during the next fiscal year data on production of egg products from plants under Federal inspection. This arrangement avoids duplication of effort on the part of the plants in sending to the Department two reports on production. Approximately 70 percent of the liquid eggs produced in the United States during the fiscal year 1961-62 was produced in plants under Federal inspection. Data for noninspected plants will continue to be collected by mailed questionnaires.

18. Sugar crop statistics.-Statistics on sugar crops held more than usual interest during the past year. With no sugar being brought into the United States from Cuba and the expiration of the Sugar Act of 1948, the sugar situation remained in the spotlight. Sugar crop statistics were widely used in preparing background data for new sugar legislation which was passed this year. Background work incident to including Hawaiian sugarcane statistics for 1962 and subsequent years in the current estimating program was completed. Separate data will be shown for each State along with totals for the mainland and the United States. Statistical bulletins showing historical series of State and U.S. data were published for maple products and for sugarcane for sugar, seed, and sirup.

19. Biennial survey of warehouse capacity.-The 21st biennial survey of the capacity of refrigerated warehouses in the United States was completed in June. A preliminary report was released in July 1962, and a more detailed and final report was released in August. This is a continuation of a survey program initiated in 1921 which is providing information of wide use both to Government and non-Government analysts.

20. Wheat pasture area inventories.-As a supplement to the wheat pasture reports for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, cattle inventory estimates for January 1, 1962, by classes for the aggregate wheat pasture area of these three States, were made and included, in the January 1, 1962, inventory report. Also, this report included for the first time separate estimates of sheep and lambs on feed on wheat pastures for western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle.

21. Objective fruit counts and measurements.—In an effort to improve estimates and the methodology used, objective counts and measurements have been expanded to include, for the first time, almonds in California and sour cherries in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In California, objective counts and measurement of almonds were made during late April and early May 1962. The data will provide a base to be used in computing a ratio estimate for the 1963 crop.

22. Expanded coverage of milk sales and consumption data.-In May 1962, data on sales and per capita consumption of 12 fluid items were published for 79 marketing areas for the period 1950-59. The data for 1960 and 1961 were published in the May issue of the "Fluid Milk and Cream Report." Similar data for current years will be published annually in the May issue in the future. Estimates of per capita consumption for recent years were revised for some areas to bring them into line with population data from the 1960 census. The estimated population of the marketing areas for which 1961 sales data are available represented 65 percent of the nonfarm population of the United States. 23. Reports issued during calendar year 1962 by the Crop Reporting Board, by commodity groups—

Type of reports:

Cotton production_.

Crop production, including prospective plantings, crop value, annual
summaries, and seed crops.

Number

of reports

7

76

87

243

72

177

47

709

Livestock and livestock products, including 13 from the western livestock office....

Fruits and vegetables-‒‒‒

Milk and dairy, including 204 issued from Chicago--

Poultry and eggs, including 52 broiler and 52 turkey.
Miscellaneous reports-----

Total____

STATISTICAL RESEARCH AND SERVICE

Dr. TRELOGAN. Special surveys of market potentials for agricultural products are conducted to provide guidance for expansion of sales and distribution of available supplies. These surveys involve research on uses of, attitudes toward, and market preferences for foods, fibers, and byproducts with special attention given to those in abundant supply.

In view of the Statistical Reporting Service's exceptional concern and proficiency with statistical handling and analysis, it has been assigned two other responsibilities pertaining to statistics throughout the Department. One includes coordination and improvement in the Department's statistical activities. This is implemented through the review and clearance of statistical forms and survey plans prior to their submission to the Bureau of the Budget in accordance with the Federal Reports Act, and also through the provision of consulting services to agencies confronted with statistical problems. The other responsibility involves management of the Washington Data Processing Center with large-scale computers and associated automatic dataprocessing equipment. The services of these facilities, which are needed for handling the large volume of data involved in crop and

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