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Two program levels are projected, (see Figure 1). The accelerated program is aimed at achieving commercial availability by 1979 and requires a budget of $204 million through FY 1979. The minimum viable program, $87M through FY 79 eliminates three out of five demonstration programs, reduces the number of pilot plant experiments from fifteen to ten, reduces component research and technology efforts from $114M to $5M, and for the most part eliminates parallel efforts. The end result is a relatively high risk program with an undesirable lower probability of success.

B. Solar Thermal Conversion Systems (STC)

Approximately 20% of the U.S. current energy consumption is used to generate electric power. Ultimately STC systems could provide 10-20% of the electric power requirement. In addition, the STC solar collection subsystem developed for electric power generation could provide thermal energy for process heat for decentralized (local) and/or centralized applications.

There appear to be no major fundamental barriers requiring basic research. On the other hand, material and equipment development is required to obtain competitive performance and economics. The key technology areas include low cost, high temperature (focusing and tracking) collectors, thermal energy storage and distribution and alternate system concept trade-offs. In addition, there are problems to be defined and resolved arising from the large areas of land required, (10-20 square miles per 1000 Mwe).

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The two program levels, with the accelerated program at approximately $275M and the minimum viable at approximately $145M, are shown in Figure 1. The accelerated program includes four different power plant pilot and demonstration projects and a research and technology program aimed at proving technical and economic feasibility by 1985. The minimum viable program eliminates one power plant project, and reduces the research and technology program from $64M to $32M. This program requires 1-2 years longer and lowers the probability of

success.

C. Wind Electric Power (WEP)

The maximum electric energy that can be practically extracted from the winds available to the U.S. has not been determined.

However,

areas of the continental U.S., the Aleutian arc and off the eastern

seaboard have been identified for which it is estimated that 1012

1-2 x

kilowatt-hours per year could be generated by wind

systems by the year 20001. The total U.S. production was 1.6 x 1012 KW-hrs in 1969 and is projected to grow to 8 x by 2000. Thus, significant amounts of electric energy are potentially available from the wind.

1012

KW-hrs

Based on world wide experience to date, no major technical barriers

to the development of practical systems are foreseen. The specific

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goal of the accelerated program ($106 million) is to have cost effective, 10 Mwe systems in operation by 1979, leading to the demonstration of 100 Mwe systems by 1981. The program includes a subsystem and component cost reduction program, research on and the collection of wind characteristics, user requirements, legal, environmental, institutional and aesthetic issues, optimization of design concepts, and the testing of single and multi-rotor systems of increasing size and performance, culminating in 10 and 100 Mwe projects. The minimum viable program ($27 million) maintains the same subelement structure but reduces the research and technology program form $20 million to $5.0 million, reduces the number of and delays the 10 Mwe system projects by one year, and delays the 100 Mwe project by four years.

D.

The WEP program will yield definitive test data by 1976-77 as to whether practical systems can be developed. Should the early data be favorable, then a crash program may well be in order to significantly advance the rate and level of impact on the national

energy problem.

Bioconversion to Fuels (BCF)

BCF systems offer the potential of furnishing replenishable supplies of clean hydrocarbon fuels. Estimates of the potential production capability range as high as 50% of the current gas or oil requirements. However, the extent to which these projections can be fulfilled will depend basically upon the amount of land available and the efficiency and economy of biomass production from that land.

E.

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The major problems to be solved involve increasing the energy yield of the production process and trying to accelerate and reduce the costs of the various conversion processes. The accelerated program ($124 million) is aimed at demonstrations of conversion plants of up to 100 tons/day capacity as well as developing high yield energy crops by 1980. In addition, a goal has been established for the practical production of hydrogen by photosynethetic and biochemical methods in the same time period.

The minimum viable program ($53 million) stretches out the program 3-5 years and reduces the number of demonstration plants from eight to four.

As in the case of the wind system program, the bioconversion program will yield early definitive test data as to whether practical systems can be developed. Thus, a crash program may well be in order at a later date.

Ocean Thermal Electric Power (OTEP)

In 1929, Claude demonstrated using a 22 Kw unit that the

thermal difference between the surface and deep ocean waters can be used to generate electric power. Although the feasibility of the concept was established, the project did not result in a practical system. Modern technology together with the nearly unlimited availability of ocean thermal energy makes this concept of interest. The accelerated program ($100 million) is intended to demonstrate the practical feasibility of converting ocean thermal energy into electricity by 1985. Both near-shore and ocean pilot plant and

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demonstration projects will be conducted at 10 Me and 100 Mwe respectively. System reliability and economic viability will be determined, along with an associated assessment of the technology and environmental impacts. The potential for production of protein and fresh water as valuable by-products will be investigated. Engineering problems to be solved include the development of deepwater pipes of large e.g., 50 foot diameter, along with methods for their deployment and the design of appropriate heat exchangers and pumping systems. A selection must be made between an open or a closed thermodynamic cycle and as to the means for transmitting energy from ocean locations to land. In addition, legal questions associated with operations in international waters must be examined.

F.

The minimum viable program ($41M) would confine the demonstration program to only one near-shore pilot plant/test facility. Consequently, the feasibility determination and ultimate commercial implementation of ocean plants would be delayed.

Photovoltaic Electric Power (PEP)

As noted previously, some 20% of the current U.S. energy consumption is used to generate electric power by a total installed capacity near 400,000 megawatts. This level is projected to double

over the next decade and become a larger portion of the U.S. energy

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