- 40 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and dramatic changes in the cost and availability of oil and other critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project will describe ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explore the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describe how the changes may alter critical apsects of the quality of life in America, and examine the implications of these changes for national policy. The The analysis will be contructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Five of these will be designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. areas covered will include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time" industries. At least two possibilities will be considered in each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections" except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to protect the environment). This analysis of "potentials" will not be a forecast in the conventional sense but will be designed to illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. When the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project will examine basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects will result in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. The components will be combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results will be compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other areas of major national interest. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Senate Committee on the Budget House Committee on Energy and Commerce House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service House Committee on Science and Technology House Committee on Education and Labor House Committee on the Judiciary House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Will analyze capacity of various technologies to respond to the demands of the economy under conditions of a major oil disruption, including both national aggregate questions and regional analysis. Will help determine domestic (lower 48 states) natural gas availability over the next few decades, and help to understand the factors that affect this availability (resource base, production rates and costs, future technology trends, R&D needs, and institutional and policy issues). U.S. Natural Gas Availability: Conventional Gas Supply Through the Year 2000 (Technical Memorandum) This Technical Memorandum describes and evaluates alternative estimates of the conventional natural gas resource base of the lower 48 states; describes and interprets past and current trends in discovery and production of this gas resource; and projects a credible range of potential (conventional) gas production for the next 15-20 years. (Requesters: Same as for full assessment) Requested by: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources House Committee on Energy and Commerce Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1984 TECHNOLOGY TO REDUCE U.S. MATERIALS IMPORT VULNERABILITY The focus of the study will be on technical opportunitites to reduce our vulnerability to interruptions in supply of strategic and critical imported materials in the longer term (5 to 25 years) through, for example, substitution, including materials, process and product substitution, improved mining, processing and recycling technologies, and more efficient fabrication and design. The study will also identify major changes in materials vulnerability that are likely to occur over the next 25 years because of advances in such fields as electronics, energy, and transportation. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation House Committee on Science and Technology This study will examine how estimates of worker displacement are made, how uncertainties in the estimates could be reduced, and what degree of uncertainty is unavoidable. Retraining programs, both domestic and foreign, will be evaluated as to their ability to reduce unemployment and provide 'reasonable opportunities to displaced workers. The study will assess the extent to which policies other than retraining may be useful in reducing unemployment. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1985 CLEANUP OF UNCONTROLLED HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES UNDER SUPERFUND The major objectives are to: (1) perform a comparative analysis of available and emerging cleanup technologies to reveal their advantages and disadvantages, costs, effectiveness, and R&D needs; (2) examine site and cleanup technology selection processes; (3) examine current procedures and future needs for setting cleanup goals; (4) assess how active and perhaps permitted waste management facilities may become future uncontrolled sites; (5) examine how the technical qualifications of personnel and Federal-State coordination affect the effectiveness of cleanup implementation; and (6) examine a number of economic issues and develop legislative options combining different choices for cleanup technologies, goals, and costs. Requested by: House Committee on Science and Technology Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1984 STRATEGIC COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, AND INTELLIGENCE (c31) SYSTEMS Will assess the technical capabilities and vulnerabilities of present U.S. C31 systems with special emphasis on additions to the system that could usefully be made in the near term with available technology. Requested by: Senate Committee on Appropriations - 43 · INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN CIVILIAN SPACE ACTIVITIES This project will evaluate the current status of international competition and cooperation in key areas of space technology in space science, and for educational and scientific exchange. It will investigate ways in which space technologies and their products could be used as instruments of U.S. foreign policy, and examine military space activities insofar as they affect civilian programs and international commercial and political relations. UNISPACE Conference (Technical Memorandum) (Published March 1983) Evaluates the technical and economic issues that arose in the United Nations Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE ́82) in August 1982, where many of the important issues were discussed in an international context. (Requester: Same as for the full assessment) Commercialization of Land Remote Sensing (Technical Memorandum) Explores the major issues that private ownership of remote sensing raises and identifies potential requirements or conditions the government may wish to impose on private sector offerors in order to preserve existing public benefits of remote sensing. (Requester: House Committee on Science and Technology; House Committee on Government Operations) Study objectives include an assessment of patterns of competition in technology transfer to the oil-rich nations of the region, an investigation of the capability of these nations to effectively absorb Western technology, an evaluation of likely future trends in technology transfer to the Middle East, and an examination of the implications for U.S. foreign and international economic policy. Requested by: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs House Committee on Science and Technology Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1984 TECHNOLOGY, PUBLIC POLICY, AND THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF AMERICAN AGRICULTURE During the past three decades, technological change and innovation in biological systems, labor-saving mechanization, transportation, and agricultural chemicals have played an important role in increasing agricultural productivity. They have also contributed to changing the very nature of agriculture. Today, farm operators account for only 3 percent of the U.S. population. Twenty percent of all farms now produce 80 percent of the food and fiber in the United States. Increased capital and kinds of skills are needed to sustain farms. Such changes have important implications for society. Technology is only partly responsible for these changes. Public policy has also played a role. However, little is known about which policies in conjunction with technology adoption have speeded up, slowed down, or reversed the trends in structural change. This assessment will focus on future and emerging technologies in other animal, plant, chemical, mechanization, and information areas and their implications for agricultural structure. The possiblity of developing technologies for different kinds of agriculture structures will be explored. The assessment will explore linkages between policy and structure so policymakers can have a clearer understanding of the factors that influence the evolution of the agricultural sector. Requested by: House Committee on Science and Technology House Committee on Agriculture Senate Committee on Small Business Joint Economic Committee Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry (endorsement) Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1985 EVALUATION OF AGENT ORANGE PROTOCOL As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews epidemiologic studies regarding longterm health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Requested by: Mandated by PL 96-151. Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate HEALTH AND SAFETY CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES IN THE WORKPLACE |