Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry: Models for New Product and In-market Forecasting and how to Use ThemThe author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. |
Contents
THE PAST AND THE PRESENT | 1 |
Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry | 3 |
Influences Across Functions | 5 |
The Time Horizon for the Forecast | 8 |
In Summary | 9 |
THE FORECASTING PROCESS | 11 |
Select a Forecast | 14 |
Enable Analytic Insights | 20 |
INMARKET PRODUCT FORECASTING | 71 |
Trending Historical Data | 72 |
Applying the Effects of ExTrend Events | 78 |
Converting Trended Data into Forecast Outputs | 91 |
Final Considerations | 100 |
THOUGHTS FOR THE FUTURE | 101 |
Create Stories Not Spreadsheets | 102 |
Hire a Science Fiction Writer | 104 |
Present the Results | 31 |
Final Considerations | 33 |
NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING | 35 |
Modeling the Market | 36 |
Forecasting the Product | 49 |
Converting Patients to Revenue | 65 |
Final Considerations | 69 |
PHARMACO A FORECASTING CASE STUDY | 107 |
Suggested Answers | 121 |
Forecast Techniques | 131 |
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