Assessments in Progress as of December 1, 1985, and Related Legislation (With Projected Delivery Dates to the Technology Assessment Board as of December 1, 1985] Energy, Materials, and International Security Division EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and changes in the cost and availability of critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project will describe ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explore the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describe how the changes may alter critical aspects of the quality of life in America, and examine the implications of these changes for national policy. The analysis is constructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Six of these are designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. The areas covered include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time' industries. At least two possibilities are being considered in each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections" except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are Inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to protect the environment). This analysis of "potentials" is not a forecast in the conventional sense but is designed to illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. when the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a convenient basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project is examining basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects will result in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. The components will be combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results will be compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other International Competitiveness of U.S. Agriculture (Technical Memorandum) Leisure Industries (Technical Memorandum) Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and its Senate Committee on the Budget House Committee on Energy and Commerce House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service House Committee on Education and Labor House Committee on the Judiciary House Committee on Public Works and Transportation House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1986 WESTERN SURFACE MINE RECLAMATION In the seven years since enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), coal companies have made significant improvements in reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the prospects for the success of surface mine reclamation have brightened. Yet considerable doubts still exist among most parties in the surface mining debate as to the ability to reclaim certain types of land or mitigate particular types of impacts. In particular, concerns have been raised about the costs of, and the short- and long-term prospects for, revegetation and reclamation on lands with: limited precipitation and/or high evapotranspiration rates, slopes exceeding 40 percent, a lack of adequate topsoil material, saline or alkali soil structures (or sodic conditions resulting from lack of topsoil), or a high potential for wind erosion. Debate also continues on the most successful methods for mitigating impacts to the hydrologic regime, to archaeological and paleontological sites, and to wildlife resources. This study will assess the effectiveness of current mining and reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the fairness and effectiveness of Federal programs and policies, in fulfilling the statutory mandates for environmental protection on Federal lands in the West. Methods for evaluating the success of reclamation practices, including the levels and kinds of uncertainty, will be studied, as will the relative costs and benefits of various reclamation techniques. An important part of the study will be an evaluation of the techniques for reclaiming abandoned mined lands. Requested by: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs 107 HIGH TECHNOLOGY STRUCTURAL CERAMICS AND POLYMER COMPOSITES Development and use of advanced materials such as high performance ceramics and polymer composites promise dramatic changes in many aspects of our economy. The unique properties and design features of these materials provide the opportunity for greatly increased performance in many products in use today, enhanced manufacturing productivity, and new types of products. Composites used as structural members in aircraft and ceramics in machine tool bits already have demonstrated some of these large performance gains. The promise of these materials has caused other nations to embark on major development programs. This nation's ability to maintain long term economic growth and remain competitive will depend to a large extent on how well we take advantage of the opportunities presented by these materials. To do so, however, requires that many technical problems and non-technical barriers be overcome. This assessment will better define the many opportunities for high technology ceramics and polymer composites over the next 15 to 25 years. It will determine the principal technical and related problems that need to be overcome if timely expansion of the commercial use of these materials is to take place. Finally, the study will analyze the broad implications of these high technology materials to future U.S. economic growth and competitiveness. Interim Deliverables: Future Opportunities for Advanced Materials (Technical Memorandum) Legislation: о National Critical Materials Act of 1984 (P.L. 98-373, Title II) Related Legislative Activity: House Committee on Science and Technology: setting research and Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and its House Committee on Science and Technology, and its Subcommittee on 108 TECHNOLOGIES FOR PREHISTORIC AND HISTORIC PRESERVATION In recognition of the importance of preserving our prehistoric and historic heritage, Congress over the last eighty years has enacted a variety of laws to protect and preserve U.S. cultural resources. This assessment will provide an overview of technologies for cultural resource management. It will: 1) identify and discuss the most effective current technologies for prehistoric and historic preservation; 2) evaluate the most promising new technologies that could be applied to the problem; and 3) suggest areas for further research and development. To the extent possible, the assessment will also discuss the costs of the technologies and examine any non-technical constraints on their use. The assessment will focus on technologies for: 1) locating, identifying, surveying, and evaluating historic structures and sites and their contents, including archaeological sites; 2) preserving buildings, structures, and landscapes; and 3) measuring the effect of changes in the environment on historic structures, artifacts, sites, and landscapes. It will not discuss the preservation of paintings, books, and other artifacts, except insofar as technologies used in their preservation are applicable to structures and sites. To the extent pertinent to historic preservation, the study will also consider technologies for storing, sharing, and retrieving historic preservation information. Legislation: O The Antiquities Act of 1906, the Historic Sites Act of 1935 The House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs: oversight review of federal 0 Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources: Requested by: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Don Young, Ranking Minority Member Hon. John F. Seiberling, Chairman, Subcommittee on Public Lands TECHNOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT: RETRAINING ADULT DISPLACED WORKERS The problems of displaced adults have received increasing attention in the 1980's, as social, technological, and economic changes have altered the worklives of millions of Americans. This assessment identifies the reasons for adult displacement, including trade and technology factors, assesses the likely effects of these and other factors on displacement in the future, evaluates existing programs and projects to assist affected workers to find new jobs, examines ways to avoid or reduce displacement (through, for example, preventive retraining, or early response to large layoffs), and identifies options to improve service to displaced workers. The work also examines how new technologies are affecting the skills needed in the workforce and how new educational technologies could help in training and retraining of adults. Preliminary OTA work on how the effects of changing technology are incorporated into BLS labor force predictions are being used as background material by the Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy of the House Committee on Small Business in its attempts to make the projections more useful to the Congress. Interim Deliverables: Displaced Homemakers: Programs and Policy (Interim Report) Legislation: 0 The Job Training Partnership Act (P.L. 97-300) The Carl D. Perkins Vocational Education Act of 1984 (P.L. 98-524) The Adult Education Act, as amended (Title I of P.L. 98-511) National Training Incentives Act of 1985 (proposed) (H.R. 1219) Unemployment Compensation for Dislocated Workers Act (proposed) National Individual Training Account Act of 1985 (proposed) Labor-Management Notification and Consultation Act of 1985 Dislocated Workers Act of 1985 (proposed) (H.R. 1611) HJRES 213 and SJRES 102 ated Legislative Activity: - to establish a national commission on |