To date our efforts have been fragmentary and subcritical, far below the size and quality for effective work. The Department of Commerce, as a result of its own studies and evaluations, similarly feels that the old order must change and that the United States must give vigorous new direction to its weather modification activities to extend and exploit our capabilities to make significant scientific and technical advances. In our view, the most appropriate agency within the executive branch to provide leadership in a redirected Federal weather modification program is the Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) of the Department of Commerce. There are strong reasons. As you know ESSA was created by Reorganization Plan No. 2 of 1965, which consolidated the Weather Bureau and the Coast and Geodetic Survey. And by administrative order the Central Radio Propagation Laboratory of the National Bureau of Standards was added. In transmitting the plan to the Congress, the President stated that ESSA "will then provide a single national focus for our efforts to describe, understand, and predict the state of the oceans, the state of the lower and upper atmosphere and the size and shape of the earth." In this capacity ESSA is the central meteorological agency of the executive branch and is deeply and actively engaged in the atmospheric research that runs like a common thread through the various types of weather modification through storm dissipation, precipitation augmentation and redistribution, hail mitigation, lightning suppression, and fog dissipation. An excellent example of this research is the work of creating mathematical models of the dynamic processes of the atmosphere on high speed electronic computers, of which I spoke a few minutes ago. ESSA, through its Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, has long been a leader in this area. The laboratory now utilizes one of the largest computers in the United States. The work of the laboratory has already generated much new scientific insight into the dynamics of the atmosphere and is establishing the scientific basis of determining the consequences of interfering in large scale atmospheric processes. I spoke earlier of the close link between weather modification research and weather prediction research. In one sense, weather modification is simply an extension of weather prediction. Both are techniques for the protection of the public against weather hazards and for the furtherance of the national economy and the well-being of the American people through the science of meteorology. There are also practical links between weather modification and daily weather forecasting. If we ultimately attempt to modify the weather on a large scale, we shall have to be able to predict beforehand what would have happened had we not made the attempt. In addition, many field experiments will require particular atmospheric conditions, and we must be able to predict when these conditions will exist. Finally, when any particular type of weather modification becomes fully operational, the decision as to whether to modify the weather in a given instance will depend in large measure on our prediction of what the weather will be. Daily weather forecasting aside, it is important to bear in mind that weather modification research requires considerable background information that only an organization steeped in the atmospheric sciences can provide. I am speaking now of such matters as the movement of water through the atmosphere, the interactions between the atmosphere and the underlying earth and oceans, the climatological history of any given area, and the nature of the processes for the exchange of energy in the atmosphere. I could easily prolong this list, but I think these examples make my point clear-that there is a wide range of atmospheric science activities that must be called upon in any meaningful program of weather modification research. This same point was made forcefully in the report of the Panel on Weather Modification of the National Academy of Sciences. For all these reasons, ESSA is already deeply involved in weather modification research. One of ESSA's specific weather modification activities is the modification of severe storms. In conjunction with the Navy, it has been conducting Project Stormfury, to which I have already referred. At its National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla., ESSA is conducting extensive research on tornadoes. The Norman Laboratory is also studying the origin and structure of hail so that we may learn more about hailstorms and how they may be modified. And ESSA is now designing a project for the Great Lakes area, which is a vast natural laboratory for the study of atmospheric processes and the structure of storms. We hope that this project will teach us more about the possibilities of modifying winter storm conditions. These projects require extensive facilities-network of observing stations, radar, and specially instrumented aircraft. ESSA already has much of them. In the area of precipitation modification, ESSA already has carried out several major field experiments, as well as scientific evaluation studies of various cloud seeding activities, the most recent of which was at the request of the NAS Panel on Weather Modification. As precipitation modification is essential to all other research activities in weather modification and in order to provide the leadership contemplated by the proposed Presidential reorganization plan, ESSA has a continuing interest in precipitation modification. Further, ESSA would on request carry out precipitation projects for other agencies, as well as its own research on precipitation processes. ESSA has also begun to study the interactions and the exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and the underlying earth and oceans. An understanding of these exchanges is fundamental to the development of a capability in large-scale weather and climate modification and the modification of local and regional climates. ESSA is also investigating the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, particularly atmospheric electrical phenomena, the dynamics of tropical convective clouds, and variations in the chemical constituents of the atmosphere. Finally, I should like to mention the inadvertent modification of weather and climate by man himself-by the burning of fossil fuels, by the expansion of cities, by the flight of aircraft, and by the launching of space vehicles. ESSA is very much concerned with the meteorolgy of inadvertent modification. It is continaully monitoring the levels of carbon diovide in the atmosphere and analyzing the effects of man's activities on weather and climate. Let me be perfectly clear in pointing out that for an agency to carry out a specialized mission such as augmentation of precipitation it must have a thorough knowledge of weather modification. Similarly, ESSA, in order to carry out its mission as to weather prediction, must also have this same thorough knowledge of weather modification. Both missions are deeply related to predicting and controlling the atmosphere. In other words, for two separate purposes two different agencies would have to be involved in some of the same fields. Under the general scheme of things that I am proposing here, ESSA would have major responsibility for advancing the general field of weather modification-with developing the science and technology common to all types of weather modification. But I want to make it clear that other Federal departments and agencies would have important roles to play. They will need to develop special weather modification techniques or make special applications of existing techniques in order to perform their statutory missions. I have already mentioned the role of the Department of the Interior arising out of its concern with water resources. There are other departments and agencies as well. The Federal Aviation Agency is concerned with the safe and efficient operation of our airports, and it should be encouraged to develop special methods for the dissipation of airport fog. And the Department of Defense will be concerned with military applications. This brings me to a final problem-that of interagency coordination. Whenever a number of Federal departments and agencies are engaged in a related activity, there must be a mechanism that permits them to consult, to eliminate duplication, to coordinate their activities, and to plan in concert. In the weather field, we now have two coordinating bodies. The first is concerned with broad questions of research policy. This is the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (ICAS), which was established by and reports to the Federal Council for Science and Technology. The Federal Council, as you know, is an advisory group composed of the science heads of the Federal departments and agencies and is chaired by the President's Special Assistant for Science and Technology. The second coordinating body is the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, which was established by Bureau of the Budget Circular No. A-62 to coordinate meteorological activities of the Federal departments and agencies. This Office is directed by the Administrator of ESSA. Similarly, the same scheme for coordination could apply to weather modification. ESSA could serve as a clearinghouse of information on what the departments and agencies are doing and plan to do in weather modification research and operations. It could seek to prevent duplication among their efforts and to iron out differences among them. It could seek to identify areas needing attention. It could provide a regular forum for the discussion of work and new ideas. It could also make studies of the national program to develop information for possible future regulatory control. Without this sort of coordination and study there would inevitably be unnecessary waste and confusion. Mr. Chairman, this concludes my statement. Once again, I wish to thank the committee for the opportunity to appear here today. Senator ANDERSON. Mr. Secretary, did you ever review what happened in 1951 when we introduced a weather modification bill? Dr. HOLLOMON. I have not reviewed it in the last few months. I had some knowledge of it some time ago. Senator ANDERSON. What was the attitude of the Weather Bureau? Dr. HOLLOMON. My understanding is that the Weather Bureau was not very bullish with respect to weather modification. Senator ANDERSON. Not very bullish? Dr. HOLLOMON. That is right. Mr. Chairman, I also would like to point out that the Weather Bureau is not the same as it was in 1951. Senator ANDERSON. They change like the weather Dr. HOLLOMON. Sometimes change is desirable. Senator ANDERSON. When did you reach this decision to change? When the two reports came out? Dr. HOLLOMON. No, sir. I would like to make my own personal identification with the subject clear. Sitting on my left is a gentleman named Vince Schaefer. I worked with Dr. Schaefer and Dr. Vonnegut for 3 years on this problem and personally wrote a number of scientific papers about weather modification. I think they will so assure you, if you ask them whether I personally have been bullish on the subject for 15 years. Senator ANDERSON. You worked with Dr. Vonnegut and Dr. Schaefer in 1951? Mr. HOLLOMON. Right. This was one of the most exciting experiments that I knew about. We worked with them on this subject. Now to get to your question more explicitly. About 3 years ago I, with the assistance of Dr. White, initiated a study of all of the experiments that have been done to enhance orographic precipitation, that is, precipitation that occurs on the less side of mountains. This was done at my request. This analysis was accomplished internally and indicated that there was very good likelihood that there could be substantial increase in precipitation in such cloud systems. As a result of that analysis and several other things the Interagency Committee on Atmospheric Science, of which I am chairman, asked for the formation of a Commission which the National Science Foundation put into effect in order to lay the groundwork for a new program. This was at our request over 2 years ago. Senator ANDERSON. I don't particularly mind what an agency does as long as we get it done but it does seem to be back where it stood 15 years ago. Dr. HOLLOMON. I think one also has to take account of the past, Mr. Chairman. I think all of us learn by experience. I also feel it is perfectly clear now to those who were involved in the ESSA organization—Dr. White can speak for himself—that we believe that not only by increasing precipitation but in changing the energetics of large-scale storms that there is a good possibility with appropriate research we can make substantial modifications of the weather, both locally and, hopefully, on a large scale. Senator ANDERSON. I think that is a very important aspect. In your testimony before the Senate Commerce Committee you said the ESSA has a large core of scientists and engineers numbering approximately 200 with special capabilities in the field of weather modification and related areas. Can you furnish the names of the 200 people? Dr. HOLLOMON. We will be glad to furnish that for the record. |