to the American citizen. Considerable education is necessary on the general character of atmospheric forces and events and ignorance in this area has already stirred fears and mistrusts of atmospheric scientists. A program of this magnitude would need broad public support which would come only through understanding and, in many cases, active participation in efforts designed to produce maximum benefit for all.

In summary, Mr. Chairman, let me reemphasize the points that I consider most essential for your committee's consideration.

First, atmospheric water is the most vital component in the total water resource system. Decisions as to the need for, recovery, and use of the water over our heads must be made as part of the planning for the entire system. Additional water from the sky may well be the solution to a particular drought situation, but the decision to try to get it should be made only as the result of a decisionmaking process that takes into account all the components of the total system and their interactions—dam storage, interbasin transfer, desalting, leaky water pipes, pollution problems, and so on.

Second, management of at least a portion of our atmospheric water resources is now in sight. The studies of the Academy of Sciences and National Science Foundation panels, and results being obtained in both government and privately sponsored programs corroborate this. Third, variability in climatic conditions, ground and surface water supply water needs, and economics in various regions of the country make it essential that problems be faced on a regional basis under an umbrella-if I may use that term-of national surveillance, responsibility, and direction.

Fourth, the atmospheric water resources program of the Department of the Interior-whether we speak of the one in effect for the last 4 years, or of one of greater size and scope-is dependent, for maximum success, on continued advances in the state of knowledge about our atmosphere. It is therefore essential that research such as supported over the past 15 years by the National Science Foundation be markedly increased.

Fifth, an atmospheric water resources program is just one, though a most important one, of a large number of programs which can and should be pushed forward at an accelerated pace because of the possibilities and potential for using weather modification for the benefit of all mankind. Interior's efforts to make proper use of weather modification for precipitation control purposes cannot be conducted with full efficiency unless adequate support is provided to the total national effort.

Sixth, we are on the threshold of a step capable of providing a major advance in human welfare. I should like to congratulate the committee for its interest and effort toward this end.

Nevertheless, as indicated in the Department's report, the Department recommends that action on the pending bill be deferred for the time being.

Senator ANDERSON. Dr. Bates, I think most of us are agreed that the possibility of modifying and perhaps one day even controlling the weather opens up awesome prospects and will involve cooperative efforts of many Federal agencies in addition, of course, to those of universities and industry. What roles do you see for agencies other than the Department of Interior in this total picture?

Dr. BATES. I would like to make very clear to the committee that I feel that this entire area of weather modification is, as the Secretary has indicated, one of the most challenging that faces us, and therefore we must have the full cooperation, coordination, and active participation of all the Federal agencies that have responsibilities and missions to accomplish in this area. I frankly believe that if Interior is to do its job properly, we must depend on a tremendous amount of data on the general circulation in the atmosphere, on detailed measurements of nuclei counts in areas in which we are working as well as in areas in which we are not working; that there is a major role and responsibility here for the Weather Bureau; for the National Science Foundation; the university scientists; the Department of Agriculture concerned with the lightning suppression and hail suppression; the Navy, Air Force, and the FAA from the standpoint of fog at airports, and all thees activities.

I think we have a pattern here which has been developing for a number of years with regard to the related efforts of these various responsible agencies of the Government. I think this pattern should be continued. We must have a greatly expanded national program in all aspects of learning about the atmosphere involving all these agencies.

Senator ANDERSON. Since a number of different Federal agencies are very deeply involved in weather modification activities, how can we insure the necessary cooperation on the Federal level without risk of domination?

Dr. BATES. I think this is a very important aspect of the total problem. I consider it necessary that we have referees-if you want to call them that-people who are not actually involved in the operating programs themselves, who will essentially serve to coach and coordinate the activities of the various agencies as they relate to this total aspect of weather modification.

Senator ANDERSON. In addition to coordination, there will certainly be some aspects of regulation. What are your thoughts on regulation? That was the toughest problem we had 15 years ago. Everybody is in favor of doing something but wants to be sure that his particular pet hobby is let alone.

Dr. BATES. This certainly is on the horizon. We will soon arrive at a point-I don't believe that we are there now-when regulation will be absolutely necessary. This will need to be taken care of by a regulating body set up for the purpose. That body should be completely independent of any of the individual operating agencies that are in the business of using the atmosphere in one way or another. Senator ANDERSON. Dr. Bates, consideration is being given to greatly increasing the level of support for research and development in weather modification. Do you see problems in marshalling the manpower to carry out in the near future programs of the magnitude being discussed? Where would the additional people come from?

Dr. BATES. I believe, as I said in my statement, that as the program grows and increases in size, as I believe it must, there are going to be increasing manpower needs. I think we can forestall some of these by beginning training programs at an appropriate time, through the appropriate agencies, to bring more people into this field. At present and in the immediate future we may experience somewhat the same situation that we have had in other programs which have a strong

national image; namely, many scientists in other fields may wish to move into this particular area. Since we will need a great many physicists, chemists, and engineers in this program, I don't anticipate an immediate short supply of manpower. I do think we must look forward to a short supply later on if we don't get prepared for it.

Senator ANDERSON. At about the time the reports of the panels for the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation were released, Senator McGovern, acting for himself and in my behalf, write the Secretary of the Interior asking him for the assistance of some of you people in the Department in developing a program to implement the two reports.

It is my understanding that you worked with a member of our staff, that several scientists with competence in the field were consulted, and you developed what the group regarded as an accelerated, but practical and feasible, program of weather modification research, development, testing, and operations the group felt might wisely be undertaken. Can you tell me how these scientists were recruited and how they worked?

Dr. BATES. Yes, sir. After receiving the request from you and Senator McGovern, I invited to come into my office, for a 2-day session which was then followed up by several others, a number of people that I consider to be among the leading experts with knowledge in this area. I will be glad to provide you with a list of the names for the record. Senator ANDERSON. It would be well to do so for the record. (The list referred to follows:)

CONSULTANTS ON ATMOSPHERIC WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM

Dr. Julian H. Bigelow, School of Mathematics, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, N.J.; applied mathematics, member, NAS Panel.

Dr. John C. Calhoun, Jr., Texas A. & M. University, College Station, Tex.; petroleum engineer, former science adviser to Secretary of the Interior.

Dr. Charles L. Hosler, dean, College of Mineral Industries, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pa.; meteorology.

Dr. Yale Mintz, Department of Meteorology, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif., meteorology.

Dr. Paul B. MacCready, Jr., president, Meteorology Research, Inc., 2420 North Lake Avenue, Altadena, Calif.; meteorology.

Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer, director of research, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Schenectady, N.Y.; physics.

Dr. BATES. We considered the state of the art, not only as represented by the reports which had just come out, but in terms of the personal experience of these experts. We put together a general preliminary draft of a plan that we felt might be used in expanding toward a national effort.

We gave careful consideration to the problems that would have to be faced with regard to logistics, manpower, material, and probable funding. We have subsequently receved from consultants two other preliminary plans that will be useful in preparing for the total national effort. We have been working very hard at this matter and we think that we have the basis for moving ahead when the time is right. Senator ANDERSON. I want to ask you that question, because I asked several Senators to join as cosponsors on the bill. I wanted assurance that the bill was not a sort of shot in the dark, but did represent a lot of study on the part of scientists who knew the field and what could and should be done.

Dr. BATES. I will be very glad to give you these statements as well as the plans of the consultants.

Senator ANDERSON. I have a copy of the memorandum on how the reports might be implemented and, without objection, will make it a part of the record. It comes from your shop. (The memorandum referred to follows:)

A PROPOSED NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR UTILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERIC WATER

RESOURCES

January 31, 1966

INTRODUCTION

No single factor in man's environment exerts a more profound control on the internal security and well-being of the American people than does the distribution of rainfall. Our ability to provide food and fiber in abundance sets us apart in the world. Yet, this ability depends entirely upon the continued supply of atmospheric water, our one vital replenishable, but extremely variable, resource. As the margin between famine and plenty is narrowed by the world's population growth, and as the demand for an increased share of food by those already here becomes more insistent, the strength of our Nation in a competitive world will in large part be determined by our ability to manage our atmospheric water

resources.

This step in water management is a large one. However, the chance of success and the potential payoff is so great that we must attempt it. In spite of large gaps still remaining in our scientific knowledge, 15 years of careful study have revealed enough areas where a payoff is visible as to warrant an effort sufficiently bold to be equal to the task. The Nation has shown through other scientific programs that it is willing to pay the price to cross new frontiers. When we cross this one the material benefits will exceed the investment a thousandfold. The complexity of the problem demands imaginative planning and forceful backing by government, universities, and industry. The program will demand that atmospheric studies be extended to the measurement of all parameters which are known to be important, that artificial alterations be applied where the best physical concepts dictate they should be applied, and that the operations be conducted within the framework of good scientific design in order that proper evaluations can be made. There will be logistic problems beyond the capability of meteorologists and atmospheric scientists; therefore, development in operations and observational capability will have to depend upon utilization of similar talents in national industry and aerospace science. It will require bringing together diverse groups under strong, imaginative central direction and discipline. However, even a minor breakthrough in man's ability to forecast and control elements of the atmosphere will beneficially affect a vast number of human problems ranging from relief of individual suffering to relief of international tensions.

BACKGROUND

The basis for the recommendation, at this time, for the exploitation of atmospheric water resources on a nationwide level arises from many considerations. Encouraging results have been found from certain small-scale projects aimed at increasing precipitation. A recent report by the Weather and Climate Modification Panel of the National Academy of Sciences describes the results of a 2-year study as follows: "There is increasing, but still somewhat ambiguous statistical evidence that precipitation from some types of cloud and storm systems can be modestly increased or redistributed by seeding techniques. The implications are manifold and of immediate national concern."

Weather modification has now reached a high level of acceptance among scientists as a vital subject deserving of strong research and development effort. This level of acceptance is due to a series of research-oriented experiments as well as long-term commercial experiments which have improved the physical understanding of precipitation and method of alternation. On the basis of these advances in cloud physics, cloud modification, and atmospheric structure in general, there is now the realization that man is definitely able to modify the characteristics of clouds in certain instances, and that many of these modifications are of direct economic benefit.

These encouraging developments result from the work of a relatively small number of dedicated people operating with small budgets. Now that there are more scientists interested in the work, more tools for appropriate field and laboratory studies, improved computer and improved understanding of how to

use them to model meteorological processes, and since all of these factors have the potential for a significant development to even greater competence in the near future, it is appropriate to harness the Nation's capabilities for this program. Small, uncoordinated groups cannot effectively cope with the management and technical complexity of the important meteorological phenomena. The appropriate strength must be concentrated and must be increased in order to reach the critical mass where the economic payoff of the program for precipitation control can be quickly established and can, thus, help assure continuation of the optimun future program.

There is a variety of factors which dictate that a program for the controlled increase of precipitation be rather different from any existing programs in any field. One factor is the complexity of the logistic and engineering problems, which cover many different disciplines; another, is the vastness of the atmosphere and the range of aspects to be considered which extends from molecular physics to planetary circulation; another, and perhaps most important, is the daily impact of weather on all individuals of the country, and the attendant need for understanding the legal and social implications. Related programs in atmospheric modification are also necessary to decrease hail, eliminate tornadoes, modify hurricanes, open holes in clouds around airports, protect crops from freezing, etc., and the precipitation control program will have to be most effectively coordinated with these other efforts. However, the nature of precipitation control requires that a special commitment be made to this subject, and that the program be large, permanent, flexible, and imaginative.

PROGRAM GOALS

The proposed program is aimed at the increase and redistribution of atmospheric water in a manner to provide benefit to the people of the whole country. By pressing operational developments forwarded at a rate consonant with the ever-advancing state of the art, this program will try to get as close to this goal as possible and do it in as short a time as is consistent with the complexity of the problem and the strength of the commitment in terms of dunding and manpower. The program goal also includes the exploitation of any techniques which show a potential for significant economic benefits as soon as the developments warrant.

Whereas a successful program of the type proposed represents an essential order-of-magnitude step forward resulting in benefits to mankind difficult to conceive, it should be borne in mind, of course, that managerial control of the total atmosphere is an ideal goal which may not be attainable within any time limit now practicable.

GENERAL NATURE OF THE PROGRAM

The program must be extremely broad in scope because of the complexity of the total effort. Thus a large amount of research is still necessary as a basis for future developmental and operational efforts. There will be immediate need for more projects which investigate the natural system by analyzing quantitative data on modified and unmodified clouds and cloud systems against data produced in computer-generated, physical models of such systems. Several such projects are already going on in a limited fashion and these must be amplified and additional ones added as required. Similar projects will engage in quantitative physical modeling and its experimental verification for the larger and more complex storm systems which provide the much larger portion of the total water supply. Operational projects such as those underway in the Bureau of Reclamation must be greatly expanded as, for example (1) optimizing the seeding of orographic and cap clouds and (2) randomized seeding of individual supercooled cumulus clouds.

In addition to specific studies such as these, there must be other efforts aimed at detailed measurement and understanding of atmospheric circulation over considerable areas (300-500 miles).

Thus, there will be a spectrum of projects ranging all the way from such basic studies as those of nuclei distributions of the natural atmosphere to commercial or commercial-type cloud seeding projects aimed at giving maximum precipitation in a particular watershed utilizing the latest engineering methods. The development of operational programs will vary considerably but may often involve a sequence of efforts beginning with the type of project mentioned above where the need is to compare the calculations of physical computer models with events in the real atmosphere in natural and modified conditions. As the