for its omission of the timber which exists today in greater quantity than any other-Douglas fir-and also for the omission of western yellow pine, another important species. The next estimate is that of Hotchkiss, published in his "Lumber and Forest History of the Northwest" in 1898. He does not go into details, but simply estimates that the total stumpage is 1,400 billion feet, of which the Northern States have 100 billion, the Southern States 300 billion. and the Pacific States 1,000 billion feet. Next are the estimates prepared by Gannett and published by the Twelfth Census in Bulletin 203. These are the most carefully prepared estimates yet made and have been widely quoted. In addition to bringing the figures for several species up more nearly to the probable stand, these estimates also cover Douglas fir, western yellow pine, and sugar pine, which were omitted in the census of 1880. The next estimate is the one made by Fernow in 1902 and published in his "Economics of Forestry. Like that of Hotchkiss, this is also a regional estimate, the stumpage of the Northern States being placed at 500 billion feet, that of the Southern States at 700 billion, and that of the Western States at 800 billion, a total of 2,000 billion feet and the highest of any given in the table. It may be noted in passing that in a previous estimate published in 1896, in Circular No. 11 of the Division of Forestry, Fernow placed the total stumpage of the country at 2,300 billion feet, which, upon further consideration, TABLE 4.-Estimate of stumpage of the United States.

he evidently considered too high. At the thirteenth annual meeting of the Southern Lumber Manufacturers' Association, in New Orleans, January, 1903, R. A. Long read a paper upon "Stumpage," in which the figures given in the fifth column of Table 4 were presented. Long's estimate does not cover cypress, sugar pine, or hardwoods. Its principal point of interest is that it differs so radically-about 38 per cent.-from that of the census of 1900 upon the stumpage of southern yellow pine. The last estimate given in the table is that published in the American Lumberman September 23, 1905. It is based primarily upon census data, with the addition of some species and with increased figures for others.

The totals given by the American Lumberman and Fernow are nearly identical; those of Hotchkiss and the census of 1900 differ by 10 million only, and the totals of Long and the census of 1880 would be close together were the omissions in each supplied. It should be remembered, however, in comparing the estimates of 1880 with recent ones that the total cut since 1880 has been over 700 billion feet, of which at least 500 billion feet have been conifers, or 80 billion feet more than the total coniferous stumpage covered by the census of 1880.

The Pacific Lumber Trade Journal, in the issue of January, 1907, gave the following estimate of the stumpage of the Pacific coast, including Idaho, Montana, and British Columbia:

TABLE 5.-Estimated stumpage of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and British Columbia.

KINDS OF TIMBER.

White pine. The original stand of white pine (including Norway pine) in the Lake States has been estimated at 350 billion feet, and this does not seem excessive when everything is considered. The total cut of pine in the Lake States since lumbering began there some seventy years ago has probably been not less than 250 billion feet, and there have also been huge losses by fire. The census estimate of the stand of white pine in 1880 was less than 88 billion feet; yet, according to the annual reports of the American Lumberman, the cut since that date has exceeded 170 billion, and the amount yet remaining was placed at 50 billion by the census in 1900 and at 60 billion feet by Long in 1903. The estimate in 1880 for Minnesota was especially low-only 8,170 million feet. More than four times that quantity has since been taken out, and Minnesota is today furnishing over one-third of the whitepine cut of the United States.

Despite these cheerful statements, however, it is well known that the days of white pine are rapidly passing, and even accepting the most sanguine estimates of the present stumpage it will in a few years cease to be a large factor in the timber supply of the United States. The present annual cut is about 3 billion feet in the Lake States and 1 billion in other States. The total is less than half the cut in the Lake States alone in the latter eighties. At the annual meeting of the Northern Pine Manufacturers' Association in Minneapolis, Minn., January 22, 1907, Secretary J. E. Rhodes made this striking statement:

Since 1895, 248 firms, representing an aggregate annual output of pine lumber of 44 billion feet, have retired from business, due to the exhaustion of their timber supply. Plants representing approximately 500 million feet capacity which sawed in 1906 will not be operated in 1907.

Southern yellow pine.-The census of 1880 estimated the stumpage of southern yellow pine at slightly more than 237 billion feet. The cut from 1880 to 1900 must have been in the neighborhood of 100 billion, and the estimate by the census at the latter date was 300 billion feet. Long disagreed with this, however, and estimated the stand at 187 billion, in 1903, while the Pacific Lumber Trade Journal in January, 1907, placed the present stumpage, in the opinion of the "best-known timber authorities," at 137 billion feet. This would unquestionably be the case were Long's estimate correct, as the cut since 1903 has been at least 40 billion feet. The census estimate of stumpage of yellow pine in the seven most im

portant States in 1880, Long's in 1903, and the probable cut since 1880 are shown in Table 6. The cut was estimated by assuming the ratio of pine cut to the total lumber cut for each State. The ratio selected is believed to be a conservative one.

TABLE 6.-Estimated stumpage and cut of yellow pine in seven States.

The present annual cut of yellow pine is about 12 billion feet, or a little more than one-third the total cut of all species, and the maximum has probably not been reached. Whether we accept the lowest or the highest estimate of stumpage, it is evident that within ten to fifteen years there will be a most serious shortage of yellow pine.

Spruce. The stumpage of eastern spruce was estimated at something over 12 billion feet by the census of 1880 and at 50 billion by the census of 1900, the total cut during the period perhaps approximating 30 billion feet. Our ignorance of the actual stand of spruce is further shown by the fact that Long's estimate in 1903 was 18 billion feet, while that of the American Lumberman a year and a half later was 75 billion feet. Maine has always been the great spruce-producing State, and lumbering has gone on steadily there for a longer period than anywhere else in the United States. The spruce stumpage of Maine was placed at 5 billion feet by the census of 1880 and at 21 billion by the State forest commission in 1902. In the meantime probably more than twice the quantity estimated in 1880 had been cut. The present annual cut of spruce in the United States is approximately 114 billion feet, of which Maine furnishes about one-third.

Hemlock. The stumpage of eastern hemlock was estimated at 20 billion feet by the census of 1880 and at 100 billion feet by the census of 1900. The present annual cut is approximately 3 billion feet, of which Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin furnish