Phases of Economic Growth, 1850-1973: Kondratieff Waves and Kuznets Swings

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Cambridge University Press, Mar 1, 1990 - Business & Economics - 197 pages
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Solomos Solomou presents a clear and systematic examination of the evidence for long-term patterns of economic growth. Using data on Britain, France, Germany, the USA and the world economy between 1850 and 1973 he refutes the existence of long (Kondratieff) waves in the course of economic development. Instead he presents persuasive evidence for a growth pattern characterised by shock-induced, long-term variations in growth at the level of the world economy. The findings show that national patterns of growth did not necessarily coincide with those of the world economy, but followed episodic long swing fluctuations of twenty to thirty years before the Second World War and trend-accelerated growth in the post-war period. The author provides new historical perspectives on the pre-1913 era, the inter-war years and the post-war boom.
 

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Contents

Perspectives on longterm economic growth variations
1
The KondratiefT wave
3
The longswing perspective
10
Conclusions
12
Statistical methodology
14
The statistical framework
17
Production trends in the world economy
27
Germany
36
Profitability long swings
108
Sectoral and intersectoral aspects
110
Climatic variations and long swings
117
Monetary aspects
124
Credit financial crises and long swings
128
Conclusions
129
Statistical appendix
130
The international aspects of Kuznets swings 18501913
132

France
43
America
48
The world economy
55
General conclusions
61
Statistical appendix
62
Price trends
71
Empirical aspects
75
Explanations for price phases
80
Conclusions
87
Statistical appendix
88
Innovation clusters and Kondratieff waves
89
Empirical considerations on innovation clusters
91
Conclusions
100
The national aspects of Kuznets swings 18501913
101
Investment swings
103
The international terms of trade and long swings
138
A longterm perspective of interwar economic growth
147
Long swings
149
Intersectoral relationships
151
Debt problems and financial crises
155
Populationsensitive investments
157
Conclusions
159
Some conclusions on the postwar boom 19501973
161
Other factors accounting for the postwar boom
163
Conclusions
167
Conclusions
169
Notes
172
Bibliography
180
Index
195
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The Laws of History
Graeme Donald Snooks
No preview available - 1998
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About the author (1990)

Solomou is Lecturer at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of Peterhouse College, Cambridge.

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